Friedman returns, "Dumb as We Wanna Be"

Mr. Friedman graces us with his opinion in today's NYT, focusing on energy policy. The long and short of it is that our politicians are failing us in a serious way. With Clinton joining McCain in calling for a gas tax holiday and the Bush-Congress inability to figure out a compromise on tax credits for renewables, we are faced with an energy policy that is working directly against our long term sustainable interest.

The McCain-Clinton proposal is a reminder to me that the biggest energy crisis we have in our country today is the energy to be serious — the energy to do big things in a sustained, focused and intelligent way. We are in the midst of a national political brownout.

I hate to focus in on the word Serious (I know Mr. Mel-Anon loves to abuse it), but I really think Friedman is on the money in this instance. Political pandering, or transactional politics, or whatever you wish to term it isn't horrible in and of itself, but when it encourages and incentivizes behavior that is against our long term public interest it really gets my goat. I'm not suprised that the McCain camp would stump for a shortsighted and ass backwards policy, but Clinton joining in is truly disappointing. I don't see how a campaign that highlights it's candidates policy credentials can keep a straight face when it comes to such a silly proposal.

If you want to help Joe and Jane Sixpack, start by developing an energy policy that reduces our reliance on non-renewables and focuses on conservation.

Is there a homeowner debt problem in Madison?

According to The Capital Times (or new spiffy online newspaper, or should I say our newly online newspaper?), Forbes magazine has ranked Madison in the top ten most overextended homeowner debt markets. I have to admit that this surprised me somewhat, as I had not realized how much leverage had been exerted in the Madison market. The study shows that of the largest 150 markets Madison is near the top in terms of number of homes with a second mortgage or home equity line of credit.

Home equity loans are more popular than ever, however. The Federal Reserve Board says the total amount of outstanding home equity loans grew from $260 billion in 1995 to $970 billion in 2005.

These loans are popular when property values are rising since homeowners receive cash and can deduct the interest. Problems come when prices fall, however.

Of note from this quote is the "can deduct interest" line. If there is one group that hasn't been attacked or blamed for the current problem, it's the government. I believe it there is a serious public policy error in our tax code, which incentivizes over consumption on homes. This type of policy was never going to be sustainable, but hey what part of our tax policy is?

Sometimes, I think I could be an economist...

"People took money out of their homes to spend it," says Scott Hoyt, director of consumer economics at Moody's Economy.com. "There are significant, negative implications for contractors and retailers because consumers will be drastically cutting back on their spending."

Hitchens, always interesting...

The Prospect offers up an intriguing biographical / psychological exploration of Hitchens in the May issue. I know many of my friends from the left side of the field may not appreciate the Hitch, but even they, if honest, would have to admit there are not many public figures as straightforward as Hitchens.

Hoosier Dems get a say...

For the first time in my lifetime, being a Democrat in Indiana could mean something in a presidential race. The polls are showing Hillary maintaing a relatively stable lead over the month of April.* This lead is not evaporation proof, however, and Obama has kept himself within range if Clinton missteps in the Hoosier state. Another potential boost or dynamic change could come if one of the Southern representatives endorses Obama. Obama campaigned for both Ellsworth (the Bloody 8th) and Hill in 2006, so he may still pull one or both out. Of course, the Clinton machine has sent out quasi-liberal Evan Bayh to discredit/discourage/denigrate the possibility of these endorsements. A short list of the gems included in the washpost article:

"Why should they get crosswise with some of their friends if they really don't need to?" asked Bayh, perhaps the most powerful elected Democrat in the state.

The effect of any endorsement -- his included -- "really is pretty marginal," Bayh said.

Well, the first quote looks like a pretty overt political threat, and the second appears to be discrediting any proactive action the reps might take. It seems the Clinton camp must be ready for the endorsements to come. It also seems that Bayh is working his butt off in Indiana to ensure a Clinton victory. I don't think we will ever see if it's true, but I'm betting that Bayh would be Hill's VP candidate --- or at least he was promised this to get him out of the race way back when he had staff in Iowa long before anyone else.

* An aside on the poll numbers, it appears in the most recent Survey USA poll that Clinton's winning "Southern Indiana" by a 2 to 1 margin. I would be interested to see how this was defined in coding the results. Additionally, I noticed that for those who consider immigration their number one issue - the breakdown is 68-28 for Clinton. The numbers are almost flipped for the issue of education and everything else is within 20 points. So, not to create too much of a false dichotomy here, but you can either elect Clinton to protect your kid's from a frightening globalized economy by keeping all them "others" out or you elect Obama and protect them through education.... I'm all for the xenophobic reaction, and would not be suprised if this isn't what keeps Clinton safe in the Hoosier state.

The end days are here....

I hate to be overly apocalyptic, but the Tampa Bay [Devil] Rays are in first place in the AL East. This development should have been mentioned in Revelation as a sign of the end times, along with all those men on horses and stuff... I honestly don't think it's a coincidence that right after dropping "Devil" from their name the "rays" start to win, which is working towards a dynasty of many years, which will get all of us baseball heathens to worship them..., which is very much not a good thing when the end times come -- it's like against the second amendment, or commandment, you know.

NFL Draft weekend

I had been fairly successful in avoiding draft coverage, until the Packer traded their first round pick (#30 overall) down to a second round pick (#36 overall) yesterday. This has been stirring up a fervor amongst many Packer fans, and I have to say it scares me that people get this worked up over a draft pick. I love me some football, but come on -- who knows what will become of a 30th, 36th, or 132nd pick. I guess the zany football fans are to dense to realize that in baseball games are being played, and those actually do matter.

Speaking of baseball, my Cards are haning in there with a very hot Cubbie team. The
Brew Crew is staying close as well. I am hoping the Cards can continue to get solid starting pitching and the timely hitting, but I'm not exactly overconfident. In other news, the Reds suck. How about that Mr. Gravy Train?

Tornado, T-storms, and severe weather

This afternoon we have been experiencing some severe weather advisories pertaining to floods, t-storms and tornadoes (sp?). I have always been fascinated by severe weather and recall numerous summer evenings spent with friends outside acting as amateur storm trackers. I am still very enthralled by these events, and I speculate that it must have something to do with feeling very vulnerable at the hands of mother nature. After all, she is the boss lady.

Media coverage of local food movements...

I think it's great that the Isthmus is giving significant coverage to the concept of locally provided food. I found the article to be quite informative and it seemed to offer a number of fair and valid observations regarding a number of organizations.

Perhaps, the most salient point made, is one that is often made, but should not be forgotten:

Still, amid its successes, the local-food movement is suffering growing pains. There is, for example, the problem of access. Local food can seem a bourgeois taste, one enjoyed by customers of pricey fine-dining establishments and precious natural-foods supermarkets.

The locatarian / locovore / local food / slow food movements must work hard to avoid becoming too much of a snootish and pretentious endeavor. I will admit that it was my love of great tasting food that got me started in the conceptual movement of sourcing more of my diet from closer to home, but I now believe it is more than that. And to make a real difference in the broader scheme of things, pretentiousness must be mitigated.

Only in 'Sconsin....

Sometimes you just don't want to believe it's true...

Helen McCollum says she was just trying to help a guy staggering down the highway after he had hit a cow in the middle of the road.

Instead, she was arrested on a drunken driving charge after hitting the same cow, which did not survive.

"I was helping this guy and I was busted," McCollum called The Capital Times to say today. "This is why people don't stop and help others anymore."

I have to admit that the real kicker of this whole story is the inclusion of the ever critical fact that the cow did not survive!

Lock'em up, say the masses...

I had previously posted an "Economic Data Tidbit" on the topic of incarceration rates, so I thought it appropriate to link to Liptak's article in the NYT today, which is part of his American Exception series on the distinctness of the American judicial arena.

Perhaps the most interesting portion of the article is one of the possible causes for the extreme disparity, democracy!

Most state court judges and prosecutors in the United States are elected and are therefore sensitive to a public that is, according to opinion polls, generally in favor of tough crime policies. In the rest of the world, criminal justice professionals tend to be civil servants who are insulated from popular demands for tough sentencing.

Mr. Whitman, who has studied Tocqueville’s work on American penitentiaries, was asked what accounted for America’s booming prison population.

“Unfortunately, a lot of the answer is democracy — just what Tocqueville was talking about,” he said. “We have a highly politicized criminal justice system.”

This is a fine example of one of those conundrums that any viable democracy must face -- how do we balance the majority's collective will with the rights of the minority? Well, we may be taking the route of just locking up the minority --- and taking away their right to vote when they return to "normal" society as well. Woot! Go Democracy!

Moving on up...

It looks like General Petraeus is moving on up in the world of military power and control. I honestly felt a little bad for the guy when MoveOn hit him with the "Betray Us" stuff last year, but now I'm wondering if this rapid career advancement isn't maybe just possibly related to his ability and willingness to carry the dirty political water of the Bush Administration. I have no real basis for this innuendo, but with this adminisration not much suprises me anymore in the realm of bad/poor governance.

Nepotism, favoritism, or not -- this advancement will ring through to the global community as another political reward for those moving forward with the Bush agenda (who really knows that this is anymore?). Another big day for American foreign relations. Yay!

Economic Data Tidbit -- Most Air Travel

Millions of passenger kilometers per year*

1 United States 1,238,952
2 China 201,948
3 UK 196,488
4 Germ 152,909
5 Japan 151,080
6 France 115,116
7 Austrailia 77,112
8 Canada 70,956
9 South Korea 69,276
10 Singapore 69,084
11 Netherlands 68,316
12 Hong Kong 66,168

Note: Numbers 2-11 added together is still lower than the United States alone. Don't get me wrong, because I love to fly and it is wonderfully convenient, but there is something wrong when approximately 300 million people are flying more than the NEXT (not even the bottom) 11 countries, or approximately 1.79 billion people. This data shows that the average American flys over 4K kilometers per year, while the average Chinese citizen flys around 150 kilometers per year. What happens if China catches up in this travel average? An increase to 1K kilometers per year (still the lowest average of this group) would increase the absolute kilometers from 200K to over 1300K.

There are obviously lots of environmental concerns out there, but our proclivity to fly everywhere and anywhere, all the time, seems to me to be a significant issue.

*From The Economist Pocket World in Figures, 2008 ed.

Thank you to Pennsylvania...

Just in case anyone was getting their hopes up that the Democratic nomination would be complete before July 1st... well the 10 point victory for Clinton yessterday pretty well ensures that we're going the distance (but not for speed - CAKE rocks).
Not to get to serious here, but does anyone really believe that this is healthy for the Democrats? McCain is walking around picking up loose cash and putting some jabs onto both candidates, while Obama and Hillary attempt to go negative in the most positive way... This could very possibly bite the Dems in the ass, and a loss in this electoral environment would be pretty significant (in a very bad way).

I know my hard left friends will say it doesn't matter, but I have to think that McCain in office for four years (at least) would probably not help our standing in the global community, and also wouldn't be as likely to reduce the body bags coming home from Iraq.

Another Newspaper Obituary...

One of the two local daily's, The Captial Times, will cease having a print version as of this Saturday. The paper is trying to put as much positive spin as possible on their foray into twice a week printed supplements in the other daily, the Wisconsin State Journal, and a daily presence online. Madison is a very well wired and connected town, but I don't know how long the Cap Times will last as an online institution. The readership numbers were already quite low, and I think a good portion of those subscribers are less likely to use the web for their local news sourcing.

In any event, Madison gets to join the standard American media landscape, whereby the daily news is dominated by a single source... At least we still have the Isthmus.

I told everyone that Madison is different...

I just heard today, that after an early January visit to cold and snowy Madtown, none other than the Hitch decided to quit smoking.

After the drinks arrive I offer Hitchens one of my Marlboro Lights. Then something life-changing happens. Cool as a cucumber - and with no hint of remorse - Hitchens announces that he has given up smoking. "I got up yesterday morning in Madison, Wisconsin, and I just threw my pack away," he says.

I have no way of knowing if he has stayed on the wagon, but this does point to one potential resultant of smoking bans in bars in really cold places.... Smokers get cold too, and if you have to stand in sub-zero temps for your fix, well it doesn't seem quite as important. I have to admit that this news struck me as startling, because on his last visit in October, I personally witnessed him lighting up in the Monona Terrace Convention Center with not a care to the world.

I'm sure this health conscious decision is making some on the left twinge, since I'm sure a number were hoping that the black lung would get him sooner rather than later.

The American Donkey!!!!!

In honor of America, I have changed the color scheme of the Donkey mother ship...

In case you were wondering, AM does not neccesarily stand for American... but if it fits at the moment, I'll take it.

In all honesty, I'm just bored today and the color scheme matches my little league team (I'm coaching, not playing wiseasses...

Additionally, today marks the official demise of Donkey Behind the Times, of the Donkey Directorate. Another concept blog may come along at some point, but for the moment I'm going to focus my energy here at the home plate of Donkey bloggers.

Organic food prices soar...

The organic food movement has taken off in the past five years in America, with sales up over 125% during that time. This same five year period saw ever growing numbers of farmers and acres of crop land going organic. According to an article in today's NYT Business section, this trend has slowed dramatically with the new heightened prices of all commodities.

The organic movement is based around the premise that consumers have a higher willingness to pay for food that is grown without the aid of chemicals, fertilizers and hormones. This premise seemed to hold true over the recent past, as the market share of organics grew significantly. The problem with this assumption now, however, is that many believe there is a likely inflection point in the food markets -- whereby, consumers will forego purchasing the organic goods due to the high absolute price. The interesting thing about this is that it doesn't appear that organics are decoupling from their normal 20-100% premium over conventional foodstuffs. Instead, the fear is that there is a pyschological barrier involved and that $7 a gallon milk is something the consumer cannot tolerate. For exmaple, two years ago a gallon of "regular" milk was around $2 and organic milk was about $4, which was a 100% price premium. Now with regular milk at $3.39 and organic at approximately $6.65 (once again roughly 100% premium), the market may begin contracting. It seems to me that in the stumbling economy, this slight (but very real to some) absolute increase, along with the aforementioned pyschological impact of the pricing, could very likely put a huge downward pressure on demand for organic goods. Another possibility proposed by a friend is related to this mindset, as he postulated that the growth in the organic food sector was due almost exclusively to the faddiness of it and the additional disposable income from a subset of the population. He may be right...

I know that at home we try to use some organic products, but have focused more on the local sourcing aspect of our food and this increase in costs has played a role in keeping us from moving more into the organic marketplace. Even with an increase in disposable income, we are often made aware of the price disparity of our food choices compared to the "cheaper" alternatives. I hope we won't have the need to leave the local food market, but I will be interested to note if there is any marked change at the big Dane County Farmer's market this year.

Spring has sprung...

Other than baseball, my favorite thing about spring is the thoughts of a wonderful garden. Given my limited amount of personal outdoor space on the condo grounds we are going to go through a CSA to augment our weekly trips to the Dane County Farmer's Market this year. We have choosen to use Green Spirit Farm in Dodgeville as our CSA this year. Our choice was primarily based on their reputation for some very good berries. I hope to be able to get back to my roots (pun intended), and plant some semblance of a mini-garden this year as well. I'm thinking some hearty tomatoes should be fun.

An interesting food and gardening article appeared in today's NYT, which may interest my fellow fans of food. With the price of transport so high, are we headed for a return of victory gardens?

Economic Data Tidbit -- Prisoners per 100K

Prisoners per 100K population (latest available year)*

1. United States 737
2. Russia 613
3. Virgin Islands (US) 549
4. Belize 505
5. Turkmenistan 489
6. Cuba 487
7. Bermuda 464
8. Bahamas 462
9. Cayman Islands 453
10. Belarus 426
11. Barbados 367

The US has a 20% higher rate than any other nation in the world and twice as high of a rate of all but 9 other nations. Included in those nine nations are such bastions of freedom as Turkmenistan and Cuba. The real craziness in this data is the fact that America's rate is increasing at a fairly strong clip. This is definately an example of unsustainable policy, since it's only a matter of time until we don't have any guards for all the prisoners.

* From The Economist, 2008 Pocket World in Figures

Redbirds atop the Central

The Cardinals are atop the NL Central by a game and a half after beating the Brewers 6-1 last night. The key to that game, and the season thus far, was some clutch two out hitting combined with solid aggressive pitching. Braden Looper picked up his third win to stay undefeated and is now a third of the way to the nine games I thought he would win. The offense has not been eye popping, but with Pujols getting on base more than 50% of the time, and solid contributions coming from Ankiel and Glaus the heart of the order is seeming more legit than it did to start the year.

Overall, the rotation has been a pleasant suprise, with the big exception in Joel Pineiro -- who looked very bad against the Giants in his first start of the year over the weekend. The bullpen has been spectacular and leads the NL in ERA. The Franklin to Isringhausen combo may end up producing another .975 win percentage when leading after seven, which would greatly help the Cards chances of staying in the race. The bullpen, however, is the biggest concern in my mind as the season moves along. Without the starting pitchers getting past the sixth consistently (unlikely unless Mulder and Clement come back and are on) the bullpen is going to be forced to work a lot of innings. With Reyes out there to chew through quite a few, I'm less concerned, but it probably isn't the best news that the Cards have had to use Franklin in 9 of the 14 and Izzy in 7 of the 14 to this point.

All concerns aside, the Cards are winning... which makes me happy. The Reds are not, which I'm sure annoys Ken... and makes me happy.

Smart people, what do we want with smart people...

Lexington, at the Economist, points out the idiocracy of the current limit on H-1B visas in America. The H-1B visa program has historically been used to bring highly educated and/or trained individuals to America for work. More than a few of these have worked out quite well, but in our current state - with Congress being a leader in fermenting a frothing anti-immigrant fervor - we are limiting this program to a mere 70K per year (assigned by lottery no less, which fly completely in the face of a market approach).

Thirty years ago this approach may have been acceptable, as the United States could sit back and tell the applicants to wait... There wasn't a solid substitute location. Now, however, many nations are realizing the value of opening up their borders to global talent while America sits on its laurels.

There was a time when ambitious foreigners had little choice but to put up with America's restrictive ways. Europe was sclerotic and India and China were poor and highly restrictive. But these days the rest of the world is opening up at precisely the time when America seems to be closing down. The booming economies of the developing world are sucking back talent that was once America's for the asking. About a third of immigrants who hold high-tech jobs in America are considering returning home. America's rivals are also rejigging their immigration systems to attract global talent.

There is still time to see a marked change, but this will require political will in a time where there may not be a more unpopular cause. The GOP can't touch this one, even though the business lobby is strongly in favor, because some of the squeaky xenophobic base can't even stomach the sound of the word immigrant. The Dems won't touch it either, despite the program being a keystone to any theory of broad liberal social justice (i.e. equal opportunity). The fear from the Dems come from the protectionist labor portion of the tent, which holds that these folks are taking 'Murican jobs. This bothers me quite a lot, because they either come here and do the job, while spending money and integrating in our society. Or, the company ships the job to where they are, or some other country where the company can get the talent it needs. I spent some time on this issue in grad school, and am still stupefied by the lack of political will and the, to be cliche, perfect political storm that is inhibiting any long-term fix for this problem.

To Retire or To Unretire...

So Brett Favre has been alluding to coming back -- IF this and/or that were to maybe, possibly, happen. I have to admit that I'm with King Kaufman on this when he says:

Look, I love me some Brett Favre, really I do. I have to. It's in the union contract for sportswriters. And I get that he was asked the question.

But after years of clogging up the spring and summer sports news with his annoying Hamlet routine, he owed it to us all to say, "I'm retired, and that's that."

I applaud the openness. I appreciate the honesty. But at long last, sir, please shut up and go ride your tractor. If you decide to come back at some point, trust me, we won't miss it. Your name will make the papers.

In the meantime, it shouldn't. You might want to start getting used to that.

Of course, you would substitute worship for love me and way of life for Wisconsinites for union contract for sportswriters, but you get the idea. I was annoyed by this talk last winter, and it is honestly worse after seeing the Pack outperform expectations only to be jerked around by Favre's never ending retirement talk. Somehow, you just get the feeling that he shares a personality trait of needing to inject himself into the news cycle with Roger Clemens. Or, he could just be keeping his name in the lights to secure another endorsement deal. I just feel bad for Rodgers, who has to come in behind a legend/god/king and is probably in a no-win situation even without Brett saying he might come back if Rodgers were hurt. This is invariably going to lead to some Packers fans rooting (hopefully quietly) for this injury to occur. Talk about hard luck...