The only thing that is constant... Change

One of the most important values espoused in liberal democracies is the rule of law, which in arguably its’ most important role regulates change within a nation. These changes include how new laws are made through an inclusive legislative process, a fair schedule of elections, smooth transitions of power, and any other significant shift that may inherently seem unstable. This stability of a nation-state during times of change is an important part of global security, because it is a truism to say that nations will at some point change – when they do so, it is preferable that these changes do not result in a power struggle between various factions. If this were to happen, progress would be a very difficult sell, since when something changes the nation would devolve into a power vacuum where all advances in the rule of law are lost to the rule of force.

Unfortunately, this is the instant case in Pakistan today. A general, who six months ago was talked of as a modernizing friend, has gone on a power grabbing spree - banning the supreme court, exercising martial law, and "delaying elections". This is all in the name of stability of course, but the end result of this current action will not be a long term viable and stable Pakistan. There are now far too many disenchanted parties. The religious fundamentalists think the government is held up by the Western infidels. The opposition parties see the cancellation of elections as a sure fire method of keeping them out of government. Perhaps the most disturbing, is the intellectual elites (e.g. lawyers, doctors) abandoning any tacit support previously given to the administration.

With these groups opposed to the current administration, a change is undeniable. The question is what will the change be, how long will it take, and from a very chauvinistic point of view - how will the new leaders view America? I would have said 2 months ago that change was coming, but that there was a greater than 60% chance that it would work out well for America. Today, the odds of getting a stable and friendly regime/administration in Pakistan have fallen to less than 50/50... maybe even to 40%. Once again the realpolitik rationale of "an enemy of an enemy is a friend" may have made a bigger and scarier new enemy. We shall see, but keep your eyes on this area -- It is going to be huge.