Sweet Sixteen

Since I failed to post the first two rounds of my bracket (which saves some face given my 9 sweet sixteeners), I thought I would play out the final four rounds to see how I fair...

In the East ---
UNC over WSU
LOU over TEN*
UNC over LOU

UNC-WSU plays well for WSU if they can keep it in the 50-low 60's. Louisville-Tennessee could be the most exciting game of the Sweet Sixteen, given both coaches desire to push the tempo -- we may see fifty turnovers and fifty three point attempts...

In the South ---
MSU over Memphis*
Texas over Stanford*
Texas over MSU

I can't tolerate bad free throw shooting, and Memphis is really BAD. I think Izzo will get some big time performances and nearly pull through to the Final Four. Texas-Stanford is a tough call, but I'll go with Texas with Augustine.

In the West ---
UCLA over WKU
Xavier over WVU
UCLA over Xavier*

WKU -- good run, now it's over. I would love to watch them pull a stunner, but don't think it's likely with a team like UCLA who plays tough enough D to stay close even during an opponent's run. Speaking of run, how long is it till Huggins gets run out of college basketball altogether and can go sit with Bobby and discuss who is a badder-ass coach. I don't think there is another NCAA coach that I find more ridiculous.

In the Midwest ---
Kansas over VIL
WISC over Davidson*
Wisc over Kansas

Wisconsin vs. Davidson should be fun to watch. Davidson is solid, but I really think that Davidson's win over Georgetown was equal parts of Curry playing huge and G-Town beating themselves. Flowers should be able to contain (notice not stop) Curry and with the rest of the team defense of the Badgers I think a victory is in line. KU will easily take down Nova, but their poor shot selection when faced with gritty man to man will come back to haunt them in the elite eight. Of course, this is a hopeful Madisonian's perspective, but the Badgers really should be able to keep this one interesting.

Final Four
UNC over WISC*
UCLA over Texas
UNC over UCLA*

The UNC-WISC game should be intriguing in another example of contrasting styles similar to the WSU-UNC matchup. Unfortunately for Bucky, UNC will have just seen the Cougars attempts at slowing it down and even with the great overall team defense, I'm not sure who will stop Hansbrough. UNC-UCLA could be interesting and fun to watch, given the potential for a Love-Hansbrough matchup --- or it could turn into a bore if UCLA gets down early.

* Must watch basketball, not that most of these games aren't.

The dismal unscience...

It looks like the supply-siders will be out in full force in 2008. I will admit that I don't always think economics is the appropriate field to address some questions --- at least not exclusively -- but it looks like the supply-side economic model supporters don't even think it can fathom the benefits of lower tax rates...

But advocates see broader economic benefits from lowering tax rates, which is one of the reasons the concept has reappeared as a point of contention in this year’s election campaign, in an amended form.

“What really happens is that the economy grows more vigorously when you lower tax rates,” said Kevin Hassett, an adviser to the presumptive Republican nominee, John McCain, and the director for economic policy studies at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. “It is beyond the reach of economic science to explain precisely why that happens, but it does.” [emphasis mine]

This is, of course, merely the newest argument offered up in the succession of bunk logic promoted by the "we got the cash and we're keeping it" anti-tax crowd. The best part is that you can't prove it wrong using economics, so all of those liberal economists who keep pointing out that tax revenues grew at lower rates during supply-side eras can stick it. Take that Krugman!

Economic Data Tidbit -- Defense Spending

From the Economist Pocket World in Figures:

Defense Spending (in Billions $)

1. United States 495.3
2. China 104.0
3. France 53.1
4. United Kingdom 51.7
5. Japan 43.9
6. Germany 38.0
7. Italy 31.4
8. Saudi Arabia 25.4
9. India 21.7
10. South Korea 20.3
11. Australia 15.6
12. Brazil 13.3
13. Spain 13.2
14. Canada 12.8
15. Turkey 11.7
16. Netherlands 9.9
17. Israel 9.8
18. Indonesia 8.4
19. Taiwan 8.0

So, the good old US of A lays out nearly half a trillion in defense spending and the next 18 nations in total drop ALMOST as much. I understand the "cutting edge" argument that holds that to stay preeminent a significant additional investment is needed. I also understand that as a percentage of GDP, the USA is only at 4.0% (20th in the world), which is significantly below the over militarized Middle East norm of 6-8%. These arguments or defenses (no pun intended) for military spending do have merit, but at the end of the day --- the US still spends nearly 5 times what China spends... Somehow I doubt the marginal benefit of the last $100 billion is all that high.... But I could be wrong, and if lowered these expenditures and something happened then it would be my fault...

Misspoken, misremembered... or Busted BS?

I am the first to admit that a little lie/embellishment is to be expected from any politician (or human), but the latest HRC bullshit seems to have legs. CNN has a brief synopsis of the issue, which pretty much fits the standard Clinton lie model.
Step 1 - Make a significant embellishment for a nominal political gain,
Step 2 - Get busted when someone calls bullshit,
Step 3 - Spin the embellishment as either:
__________________a. I misspoke
__________________b. I misremembered
__________________c. I'm the victim

So, Step 1:

She said when she arrived in Bosnia on March 25, 1996, "I remember landing under sniper fire. There was supposed to be some kind of a greeting ceremony at the airport, but instead we just ran with our heads down to get into the vehicles to get to our base."

Step 2 was completed by the Phily Daily News, and

Step 3 is a combo of defense a, b, and c. (with a nice exaggeration thrown in for good measure),

"I say a lot of things -- millions of words a day -- so if I misspoke, that was just a misstatement," she said.

I really think it is the combo of predictability and brazenness that gets me on these things. Is Hitchens correct, do they have no one left to lie to?

Economic Data Tidbit....

Highest Health Spending -- As a percentage of GDP

1. United States 15.4
2. West Bank and Gaza 13.0
3. Malawi 12.9
4. Lebanon 11.6
5. Switzerland 11.5
6. Germany 10.6
7. France 10.5
8. Austria 10.3
9. Serbia 10.1
10. Iceland 9.9
11. Jordan 9.8
11. Portugal 9.8
11. Canada 9.8

UK? Not in the top 30.

So the US spends at least 18% (relatively, far more absolutely) more than any other nation in the world on health care. Roughly 35-45% more than the highest European spenders and we still have more than 15% uninsured. I'm aware that a real portion of our spending is on R&D, which is often not recovered from other nations even though they benefit. I also recognize that we are the most health obsessed nation in the world, with a commitment to conduct an expensive procedure whenever it is plausible. It seems that health care reform will require not only providing coverage to everyone (focusing on preventative care), but could also require some reevaluation of our treatment plans and usage amounts. Health is important, but there is something suspiciously odd about spending 45% more on it than the Germans do.

Spitzer's Scandal...

It looks likely that Spitzer will resign following the latest political sex scandal. This one particularly stings the public's sensibilities as Spitzer had made himself out to be an ethical and moral man with the utmost respect for the law. I won't digress here into discussing the crime itself, but suffice it to say that a true slimeball politician may have made it through this scandal... Spitzer will not.

The more interesting part of the story to me was that the NYT broke this story, which after the innuendos levied on McCain a week or so ago makes one wonder if the NYT has a sex scandal desk.

The New York Times began investigating Mr. Spitzer’s possible involvement with a prostitution ring on Friday, the day after the prosecutors arrested the four people on charges of helping run the Emperor’s Club. After inquiries from The Times over the weekend and on Monday, the governor canceled his public schedule. An hour after The Times published a report on its Web site saying Mr. Spitzer had been linked to the ring, the governor made his statement.

The NYT is your source for juicy news on all of the big politicos...

Spring is on the way...

Or maybe it is already here, at least in Madison - where we do things a little differently. Though it snowed a bit yesterday, I do believe things are looking up, as we are slated to see the mid-40's for three consecutive days. This has not happened since mid-November and many are ready for the change. I've often said I appreciate all four seasons and the interludes between each, but after living through this 90+ inch winter -- I'll be happy to move straight away into full fledged spring.

In blogging news, I am officially canning the under performing and most unsatisfying unit of the Donkey Directorate, CardsDonkey. It shall be labeled as defunct from henceforth.

Florida and Michigan...

I could go on for far too long on about how to resolve the DNC stripping Michigan and Florida's delegates... but alas then I would just be another stooge repeating the sunday morning main stream media party line.

I'll tell you how you fix this.... forget about it. Don't seat them. The rules were established. The state Democratic parties in each state thought the DNC was bluffing, they weren't. Sorry Florida and Michigan, but you screwed up... or at least your state Dem leaders did. There isn't a good and clean solution for this issue, but I think it's better to suffer the fallout now than to keep the wrangling going on forever, as both sides try to find a way to split X number of delegates.

At the end of the day the only winner of this is Florida Governor Crist, who gets to support his Democratic primary voting citizens and thus comes across as the true supporter of people's right to vote... while also getting his share of stirring the shit pot that is the Democratic nominating process. On top of all this, it is very possible that the delegates won't be seated, which will mean that Crist can whine on and on all summer saying McCain wouldn't let you be disenfranchised like those damn donkeys. Then in the end [or november], we get to watch Florida go 52-48 GOP, and all the Dems can complain and point fingers and cry again. While Mr. Crist sits back and enjoys being the hero to diseffected independent/donkeys of the sunshine state. Cake.Eat.It.

Economic Data Tidbit...

My new diversion during coffee breaks is the Annual "Pocket World in Figures," published annually by The Economist and received "free" with my subscription. Today's interesting tidbit is largest companies in the world by gross sales (in billions of $)

1. Exxon Mobil $339.9
2. Wal-Mart $315.7
3. Royal Dutch Shell Group $306.7
4. BP $267.6
5. General Motors $192.6
6. Chevron $189.5
7. DaimlerChrysler $186.1
8. Toyota Motor $185.8
9. Ford Motor $177.2
10. ConocoPhilips $166.7

Anyone notice any similarities amongst this group?

No cursing...

South Pasadena has proclaimed a no cussing week. Apparently, cursing is a precursor to violence...

For his part, Hatch hopes his No Cussing Club will lead to cuss-free zones in other cities. He believes it could be a quality-of-life issue, and that there may be less violence if people behave better.

"You have to start with the little things," he said.

I really do applaud a kid trying to make a difference in the world, and I could see a quality of life argument being made if people were constantly screaming FUCK! in public -- but come on. How about a little embrace for our humanity and its derivative profanity. I'm sure it is mostly just me being a potty mouth that gets me worked up over this lunacy, but there is also a tinge of the All Powerful Moral Imposition from above...

My mom and dad always taught me good morals, good values, and not cussing was one of them," said McKay Hatch, the founder of South Pasadena High School's No Cussing Club, during a recent break between study hall and tennis practice.

"I've cussed before, I'm not gonna lie to you," Hatch quickly added. "But I try not to cuss any more."

This, "I've done it before, but am trying not to do it again" smells of the paternalistic and anti-humanistic tendencies of certain institutions I have been exposed to in my life... and let me tell you, they hate freedom more than any hippy or liberal out there. Next time try proactively helping those that need it, that might help a community's quality of life a bit more than banning a few "super bad words."

Another little piece to this issue, that the article doesn't address, is whether or not the "No Cussing Club" offers alternatives... I'm sure they do, and I'm sure it's those ridiculous sounding "good word" combos that carry the same inflection as the "bad words." This is just silly, the underlying feelings are the same, the intent is the same, but somehow using a good word makes this all ok?

Spend and Spend some more...

A new post is up on Donkey Behind the Times and I thought I would give a shot at cross posting it here:

Morgan Stanley Asia chairman Stephen Roach penned an insightful op-ed in today's NYT. He discusses the current economic situation in America in comparison to Japan of the early 90's. I'm not sure when we are going to wake up and realize that we are over consuming, but at least there seems to be some in the business world that recognize the coming reckoning...

Like their counterparts in Japan in the 1990s, American authorities may be deluding themselves into believing they can forestall the endgame of post-bubble adjustments. Government aid is being aimed, mistakenly, at maintaining unsustainably high rates of personal consumption. Yet that’s precisely what got the United States into this mess in the first place — pushing down the savings rate, fostering a huge trade deficit and stretching consumers to take on an untenable amount of debt.

A more effective strategy would be to try to tilt the economy away from consumption and toward exports and long-needed investments in infrastructure.

The bastardization of Keynesian economics by contemporary politicians is at the core of this problem. For some reason contemporary fiscal and monetary policy has taken the "lower interest rates / tax rebates or breaks" method to be the only way out of troublesome waters... Neglecting the concept of government backed infrastructure enhancements, which in the classical Keynesian school is a requirement of sound response to a slowing economy. I don't purport to be a devout Keynesian, but the current approach really stinks of being corrupted by the anti-tax crowd...

Many thanks to Ohio and Texas...

for insuring that we get to witness a continuation of the Democratic nomination process.* I'm not sure that the Repubs could script it much better than the current scenario, whereby Clinton and Obama are in a heated race up to the convention.* With Clinton still slighlty on the outside looking in, we can rest assured that there will be plenty of hard hitting (and mostly below the belt) attack ads forthcoming from her camp. This is completely legit though, since Clinton has answered that "red phone", oh so many times.* This will inevitably yield a response from the Obama camp, which will, despite my hopes, probably go to the well of negativity to push back. This tit-for-tat approach will save the GOP time and money as they will get something consultants can't even really provide --- information, not about how the public may respond to certain attack methods, but actually how the public does respond. This is invaluable in what will likely be a nasty general election. I can't wait to have the airwaves blowing up with "red phone" ads from both sides in a Hillary vs. McCain general.* The other peice of great news is that we can continue to hear two moderate liberals (or as some call them sensibles) continue to try to play both the populist and the mainline corporate tunes...*

I apologize for sarcasm, I know it doesn't translate well, but I'm off my blogging game and am admittedly confounded by last evening's results.