Who's on third...

With the Iowa caucuses just around the corner, the polls are indicating Huckabee holding a significant lead over Romney. I forsee Huckabee taking this one down, as Romney has been pumping his campaign in Iowa for quite some time and making little headway. This race for first is obviously important, but perhaps the bigger question is who will finish third?



This graph from pollster shows tight three way race for third between Freddy T, Johnny Mac, and Da Rudy. I think Thompson (and his parabolic polling numbers) is a cooked goose, but this may be his chance for a rebound. Rudy would love to solidify his campaign with an expectations game win by finishing third, which could buoy his campaign through a poor finish in New Hampshire. Johnny Mac could get the biggest bounce with a third place finish, considering he is polling well in New Hampshire. A third here for McCain could very possibly give enough bounce to move ahead of the "loser" between Huckabee and Romney.

Additionally, it looks like Huckabee is in a dead heat nationally with Rudy G. I think this means that if the Huck wins Iowa and finishes above Rudy in New Hampshire -- Florida becomes a MUST WIN for the Rudy camp. Oh how much fun this time of year is....

It's all so complicated...

The Bhutto assassination undoubtedly throws some uncertainty into the Pakistani situation and my comrade Mel-Anon hits home with a great post on the situation.

It is difficult to decipher what this will mean for Pakistan in the long term, but the likely short term implications are Sharif and the opposition parties boycott the January 8th elections -- leading to a status quo government ran by Musharraf. With the US pushing for the election to stay on track to keep the "bad guys" from winning -- we will probably see an "election" that changes little other than giving a new rallying cry for unrest. Overall winner -- whoever likes a destabilized nuclear power situated between Iran, Afghanistan, India and China.

I saw Charlie Wilson's War over the weekend, and have to say that it is pertinent to this topic. Understanding the Soviet-Afghan experience is a must for understanding the current geopolitical situation in Southern/Central Asia.

As apolitical as it gets...

Former Pakistani Prime Minister and current opposition leader Benazir Bhutto
was assassinated on Thursday in Rawalpindi. It is disheartening to see such apolitical actions in a situation that is in desperate need of politics. Somewhere today, Bernard Crick weeps... As do all of us who hold out hope for conciliation, compromise and relatively peaceful transitions of power. I hope that this isn't the spark that sets off an already combustible situation.

A powerful "O"...

In the previous post, I mentioned how the mainstream media is discounting Oprah's influence... now they are reporting that she has angered and alienated her fans. Somehow I doubt that most of these comments left on her site were from many of her true fans. It also bothers me that those who rely on the free market idea are often the first to jump all over a celebrity for a political endorsement. It is my belief that the basic civic duty of political participation isn't checked at the door when you become a celebrity. If one just throws endorsements around and angers their audience too much... the market will let that person know.

My personal favorite comment on the CNN site:

Obama will loose to the Republican's if he is elected. The only person capable of beating the right-wing machine is Hillary Clinton. You may not like everything about her but we can't afford the Republican party keeping control of this country for another 4-8 years. Come on DEMS!! Don't shoot your own feet off by nominating Obama. He will be eaten alive!!!!!!

Posted By john, Euless, TX : December 13, 2007 7:50 pm

Damn straight john from Euless (or is it Hillary from Chicago via New England via Arkansas via DC via New York???) -- he will surely loose if elected... Wait if he is elected, wouldn't that mean.... Oh well, I'm confused.

The following comment may offer more insight, but definitely less entertainment (and isn't that what CNN is all about anyway?).

Reading too much into things. I really don't think a few comments on Oprah's website is indicative of any type of "backlash". As for her comments, it's obvious a few people are overreacting and seeing a racialized message I seriously doubt is there. I've never cared much for Oprah but I don't think she should be forced to live in a race and politically free bubble just because her fans expect her to. I haven't seen any other celebrities coming under fire for supporting the politicians of their choice. Personally I think this ticker is CNN trying to give attention to an "issue" that isn't an "issue" to begin with.

Posted By Edwin, Chicago IL : December 13, 2007 8:27 pm

I'm not sure I agree with the idea that other celebs don't take heat as well for their political stands (think Dixie Chicks), but overall some valuable points. I definitely agree with the point on CNN trying to create a story because of some comments on Oprah's website. If this is "news," maybe I could start a group of Internet muckrakers who don't report the news... but make it.

The Evolution of Huckabee...

From a back of the pack longshot (I got him at 15 to 1) just a few months ago, he has come on strong and appears to be making headway nationally as well as in Iowa. It appears that it's not just Hawkeyes for Huck anymore...



*You can catch an overview of the recent CNN/Opinion Research national poll(which is the last included in the above graph) at pollster.com. The highlight of the poll is the close proximity of Huckabee to Rudy G. for the national lead. I think the story of the next month (on the GOP side) will be not only how Romney and Huck battle in Iowa, but how Rudy goes after Huck to stave off any momemtum he may gain from (likely?) winning in Iowa. The veracity of Rudy's attacks in the next few weeks could be a tell-tale sign of how much of a threat he sees in Huckabee. I think that with a win in Iowa and a second place finish in New Hampshire, he would make a formidable foe. Of course, with Cali and NY looming early in February - this still may turn out to be a flash in the pan.

** Of additional note on the graph --
1. How about that parabolic curve for Freddy T, where the focus is near the point of announcing his candidancy.
2. Rudy G's noticably fallen off in recent weeks. I haven't seen much in the media about him and it seems his campaign is taking a wait and see attitude with respect to the nomination process -- as in "wait and see how badly we underperform in Iowa and New Hampshire before we do something about it."
3. Romney's failure to climb in the national polls. I was excusing it since it was the "common knowledge" that his national numbers were hurting since he was concentration on the early primary states. After Huck's ascendency, however, I am convinced that Romney cannot win the GOP nomination.
4. Another thought, if Huckabee takes out Romney, but Rudy looks more favorable to win in NY or Cali than Huck... who do the social conservatives move towards? Freddy T. is cooked... so is it back to Johnny Mac? A darkhorse that you just can't count out yet.
5. Ron Paul is interesting, but he has no hope of the GOP nomination.


*** On the Dems side, if you didn't hear already... ok you did... Barack had campaign events with Oprah in three states over the weekend. I was suprised to see the media and the "experts" dismissing this as just another celebrity endorsement that doesn't translate into votes. I'm not going to say that Oprah can win an election on her own, but I definately think her voice carries more weight than Warren Beatty or Bruce Springsteen. Don't get me wrong, I love THE BOSS, but he didn't have access to a daily television audience (cult??) that have created an entire lifestlye via options and choices provided by "O". Seriously, not recognizing the difference of Oprah in comparision to the other celeb endorsements is either a serious miscalculation, intentional attempt to derail her influence or stupidity.

Homeward Bound...

I am heading off to Southern Indiana for the weekend. I hope to catch up with some old friends during this visit and hopefully avoid snow on the roads.

Things to do:
* Eat at Grandma's [check]- and I enjoyed it more than ever
* Drink a Bud Light [check]- but i didn't enjoy it like I used to.
* See the old gang [half check]

Things not to do:
* Discuss the intricacies of religion [check]- though this was hard.
* Fail to bow at the throne of the high school basketball gods [check] - though i did laugh on the inside about the consternation a 1-2 start was causing
* Order a Sierra Nevada Pale Ale at the local bar - [uncheck]- I asked for a Sierra without thinking about it, and got a really strange look from the Barkeep
* Cajole the old gang into repeating our old shenanigans. [check]- this was mostly safe, since I didn't see the group together.

Have a good weekend. Stay warm and involved.

localvore, locatarian, or locavore...

The Oxford American dictionary has announced it's 2007 word of the year is locavore. This is one, and the preferred iteration by me, of the numerous terms used to describe the movement towards local sustainable and organic food stuffs. The movement is comprised of a variety of groups such as, environmentalists, hippies, gastronomes, yuppies and me [I may fit into none, some or all of these categories].

This is one of those issues that I feel the need to shamelessly plug from time to time. I hope this publicity will bring some more people into a state of awareness of what wonderful food is being grown and provided for right in your region. There are numerous depressing facts and rationales for partaking in local foodstuffs whenever possible, but to me it started with the quality/taste of the food. If the movement focuses on this and works on spreading the environmental message as a bonus point - it just might work out. The economics argument is also becoming more of an argument as gas prices remain high.

I honestly believe, that with a slight alteration of expectation - as in recognizing that most products are seasonal in nature - and a slight increase in time spent handling and cooking food the concept of being a locavore may be able to actually put a dent in the farming-industrial complex created by our federal government's policies. Of course, I do fear the self righteous amongst us will invariably become frustrated by the folks like me who want to make this a legitimate option for all and not merely an elitist "I feel better" activity. More info available here, from a group that doesn't seem to be too militant.

-- Though I am intimately involved in this local food lifestyle, my choice for word/phrase of the year would have been: "An aura of invincibility" - Definition: The term invented by the Clinton campaign/media/Karl Rove to describe the hope/dream that nobody can possibly contest Hillary for the Democratic nomination.