The Evolution of Huckabee...

From a back of the pack longshot (I got him at 15 to 1) just a few months ago, he has come on strong and appears to be making headway nationally as well as in Iowa. It appears that it's not just Hawkeyes for Huck anymore...



*You can catch an overview of the recent CNN/Opinion Research national poll(which is the last included in the above graph) at pollster.com. The highlight of the poll is the close proximity of Huckabee to Rudy G. for the national lead. I think the story of the next month (on the GOP side) will be not only how Romney and Huck battle in Iowa, but how Rudy goes after Huck to stave off any momemtum he may gain from (likely?) winning in Iowa. The veracity of Rudy's attacks in the next few weeks could be a tell-tale sign of how much of a threat he sees in Huckabee. I think that with a win in Iowa and a second place finish in New Hampshire, he would make a formidable foe. Of course, with Cali and NY looming early in February - this still may turn out to be a flash in the pan.

** Of additional note on the graph --
1. How about that parabolic curve for Freddy T, where the focus is near the point of announcing his candidancy.
2. Rudy G's noticably fallen off in recent weeks. I haven't seen much in the media about him and it seems his campaign is taking a wait and see attitude with respect to the nomination process -- as in "wait and see how badly we underperform in Iowa and New Hampshire before we do something about it."
3. Romney's failure to climb in the national polls. I was excusing it since it was the "common knowledge" that his national numbers were hurting since he was concentration on the early primary states. After Huck's ascendency, however, I am convinced that Romney cannot win the GOP nomination.
4. Another thought, if Huckabee takes out Romney, but Rudy looks more favorable to win in NY or Cali than Huck... who do the social conservatives move towards? Freddy T. is cooked... so is it back to Johnny Mac? A darkhorse that you just can't count out yet.
5. Ron Paul is interesting, but he has no hope of the GOP nomination.


*** On the Dems side, if you didn't hear already... ok you did... Barack had campaign events with Oprah in three states over the weekend. I was suprised to see the media and the "experts" dismissing this as just another celebrity endorsement that doesn't translate into votes. I'm not going to say that Oprah can win an election on her own, but I definately think her voice carries more weight than Warren Beatty or Bruce Springsteen. Don't get me wrong, I love THE BOSS, but he didn't have access to a daily television audience (cult??) that have created an entire lifestlye via options and choices provided by "O". Seriously, not recognizing the difference of Oprah in comparision to the other celeb endorsements is either a serious miscalculation, intentional attempt to derail her influence or stupidity.