Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Primary night analysis...

It looks like Obama is going to crush Clinton in North Carolina, but the far more interesting storyline of the evening is the Indiana primary. Obama trails by 40K in votes with around 85% of the precincts reporting according to CNN. This amounts to a 52-48 lead for Clinton with vote totals of around 554K-513K. The kicker here is that a quick rundown of precincts reported shows that Monroe has 43% in already, but the vote totals indicate to me that these are the rural areas of that county. This means that Bloomington, with all of the Indiana students is still to come. This could easily break at a 3 to 1 clip for a total of 20K votes. Additionally, Lake County hasn't reported at all, and being in the Chicagoland area with a large black population --- should be prime real estate for Obama. If turnout there is around 50-65K, this could also break at 70-30 for Obama. This could very possibly make up 30-40K in votes. This is a huge speculation, and depends on turnout... but I think a telltale sign that I'm on to something is the fact that they have not called the race yet. Obama may just win the Hoosier state...

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