Monday, April 7, 2008
An Honest Day's Work, An Honest Day's Pay...
Well, maybe not so honest. This interactive guide to CEO's compensation plans is an annual favorite of mine from the NYT. I'm picking out American Express CEO Kenneth I. Chenault as my personal target of disdain. I am hard pressed to find even a free market economist who would argue that overseeing a 13% drop in share price is worth a 95% (yes nearly double) increase in compensation. Don't you wish you could lose 13% on the single most important indicator of your work and still pull a $50M salary? What a fleece job...
Friday, April 4, 2008
The 80% threshold...
It isn't everyday you find a poll of Americans that is as lopsided as this one. With 81% saying the country is on the wrong track, I think it is safe to say that we have issues. Additionally, only 4% -- that is one out of twenty-five people -- think the country is in better shape than it was five years ago. So, what is to be done? It looks like there is some support for a progressive solution involving raising taxes on the wealthy (58%), but this comes undone a bit when compared with only 43% preferring a larger role of government.
Fifty-eight percent of respondents said they would support raising taxes on households making more than $250,000 to pay for tax cuts or government programs for people making less than that amount. Only 38 percent called it a bad idea...All told it seems likely that the battle over those last 14% will be critical for establishing a policy mandate for the next administration. Personally, I see a need for significant reconsideration on our current fiscal policy. This may well involve raising taxes on the wealthy -- though I am not sure $250K is the best number to delineate being truly wealthy -- but also requires a review of our expenditure (general, entitlement, and tax) priorities. The current schema is, in my opinion, not sustainable over the long term. We need to reinvigorate the American ideal of producing more than we consume.
More broadly, 43 percent of those surveyed said they would prefer a larger government that provided more services, which is tied for the highest such number since The Times and CBS News began asking the question in 1991. But an identical 43 percent said they wanted a smaller government that provided fewer services.
Thursday, April 3, 2008
Spring Training Vacation...
It has been nearly a month, and if I'm ever going to post on our jaunt to South Florida I must get to it. We travelled by bus to O'Hare, and then flew to West Palm Beach via Philadelphia (pretty direct flight, huh?). Our trip went without any significant issues and we were able to make it to the Bed and Breakfast (Tropical Gardens B&B) we stayed at by 7:30 PM on Saturday. We were greeted by the proprietor's Steve and Evie, who live on-site. This is a wonderful plus to any B&B in my opinion. Steve offered us a drink and gave us the tour of the grounds. There are only four rooms for rent, so it quickly felt like we would get all the attention we wanted. Steve was very pleasant to talk to and the free reign of the bar and fridge were a great touch. We had delivery salad and subs prior to settling in for the evening.
Sunday morning the weather beautiful when we finally got ourselves out of bed from our pool side cottage for breakfast at 9:00 AM. Steve offered a fresh fruit bowl for our first course of breakfast and it was wonderful to have the full flavor of an orange for the first time in many months. Steve cooked a Brie and asparagus omelet for the entree, which was succulently rich and very filling. We then drove to Roger Dean Stadium in Jupiter to catch the 1:00 start of the Cardinals vs. the Braves. We had good seats, which there aren't many bad ones in the park, but the Cards did fall 3-2. The highlight of the game for me was catching a foul ball from a Brave reserve. After the game, we walked around the stadium village and I found a nice cigar shop. Being late afternoon, we had to make out to find a sports bar to watch the Badgers play for the Big Ten title against Illinois.
On Sunday evening we decided to head to downtown West Palm Beach to check out City Place and find a place to get some dessert. This area is quite nice, be it that a lot of stores were closed after 6PM on Sunday. We ended up eating at a City Cellar, a wine bar that carried half bottles of Ken Wright pinot. We decided on the Shea's and enjoyed it with a flat bread pizza, while seated on the mezzanine of the City Place Plaza.
Monday brought another huge breakfast featuring biscuits and gravy with southern scrambled eggs. Steve, once again, delivered on his promise of a huge breakfast. After getting to the game early to see if we could get Berm seats (we couldn't), we got to watch the Braves in batting practice. It is quite impressive the physical size and strength differences between the players on the field. Some, Teixeira and Jones for example, really do look like men amongst boys standing and hitting beside the twenty-two year olds. Following the Cards victory (Reyes looked good), we headed to the coast to at least say we went to the beach when in Florida. The beach was nice, though the wind made it a bit chilly. It was fun to go out on the pier and watch the Sunshine State's surfers, which is to say watch some people sit on surfboards in the water waiting on a half wave to scoot on for a couple of seconds. We ended up in the pool and ordering in Chinese, so we could watch Dancing With the Stars (an addiction).
Tuesday began with a Sweet Potato pancake breakfast followed by check out. We spent the early afternoon at City Place again, and enjoyed some window shopping at the stores. Of particular note, we found a "European" coach for $15K -- which to me should come with a flight to Europe. We returned to the airport to be greeted with the probability of a delay due to President Bush flying into PBI. I got to see Air Force One landing, which was admittedly pretty cool. This delay ended up not being that big of a deal, since we were delayed a lot in Charlotte anyway. The wife showed me her way of spending time in an airport is to walk around the whole thing... and to think I thought I would get off with no working out. Once we finally arrived in Chicago, I raced to the baggage claim and she tried to hold the last bus back to Madison. This attempt failed and our luggage came out about 10 minutes after the last bus out of town (it came out first, I might add). After futile attempts at one-way car rental and the sticker shock moment of my life at the Airport Hilton ($450 + taxes for one night), we finally took a cab to a hotel.
Following a night of not so great sleep in a smoking room, we awoke and grabbed the bus back to Madison. We were happy to be back home, but got the greeting from Mother Nature of a nice six inch snowstorm two days later. Overall, West Palm Beach isn't the kind of place I would visit without the Cardinals being in Spring Training there, but since they are I anticipate we will return again in the next few years. The discussion with the locals, however, always seemed to bring up crime and/or hurricanes... the latter or which means there is absolutely zero chance of ever living or time-sharing in South Florida for us.
Sunday morning the weather beautiful when we finally got ourselves out of bed from our pool side cottage for breakfast at 9:00 AM. Steve offered a fresh fruit bowl for our first course of breakfast and it was wonderful to have the full flavor of an orange for the first time in many months. Steve cooked a Brie and asparagus omelet for the entree, which was succulently rich and very filling. We then drove to Roger Dean Stadium in Jupiter to catch the 1:00 start of the Cardinals vs. the Braves. We had good seats, which there aren't many bad ones in the park, but the Cards did fall 3-2. The highlight of the game for me was catching a foul ball from a Brave reserve. After the game, we walked around the stadium village and I found a nice cigar shop. Being late afternoon, we had to make out to find a sports bar to watch the Badgers play for the Big Ten title against Illinois.
On Sunday evening we decided to head to downtown West Palm Beach to check out City Place and find a place to get some dessert. This area is quite nice, be it that a lot of stores were closed after 6PM on Sunday. We ended up eating at a City Cellar, a wine bar that carried half bottles of Ken Wright pinot. We decided on the Shea's and enjoyed it with a flat bread pizza, while seated on the mezzanine of the City Place Plaza.
Monday brought another huge breakfast featuring biscuits and gravy with southern scrambled eggs. Steve, once again, delivered on his promise of a huge breakfast. After getting to the game early to see if we could get Berm seats (we couldn't), we got to watch the Braves in batting practice. It is quite impressive the physical size and strength differences between the players on the field. Some, Teixeira and Jones for example, really do look like men amongst boys standing and hitting beside the twenty-two year olds. Following the Cards victory (Reyes looked good), we headed to the coast to at least say we went to the beach when in Florida. The beach was nice, though the wind made it a bit chilly. It was fun to go out on the pier and watch the Sunshine State's surfers, which is to say watch some people sit on surfboards in the water waiting on a half wave to scoot on for a couple of seconds. We ended up in the pool and ordering in Chinese, so we could watch Dancing With the Stars (an addiction).
Tuesday began with a Sweet Potato pancake breakfast followed by check out. We spent the early afternoon at City Place again, and enjoyed some window shopping at the stores. Of particular note, we found a "European" coach for $15K -- which to me should come with a flight to Europe. We returned to the airport to be greeted with the probability of a delay due to President Bush flying into PBI. I got to see Air Force One landing, which was admittedly pretty cool. This delay ended up not being that big of a deal, since we were delayed a lot in Charlotte anyway. The wife showed me her way of spending time in an airport is to walk around the whole thing... and to think I thought I would get off with no working out. Once we finally arrived in Chicago, I raced to the baggage claim and she tried to hold the last bus back to Madison. This attempt failed and our luggage came out about 10 minutes after the last bus out of town (it came out first, I might add). After futile attempts at one-way car rental and the sticker shock moment of my life at the Airport Hilton ($450 + taxes for one night), we finally took a cab to a hotel.
Following a night of not so great sleep in a smoking room, we awoke and grabbed the bus back to Madison. We were happy to be back home, but got the greeting from Mother Nature of a nice six inch snowstorm two days later. Overall, West Palm Beach isn't the kind of place I would visit without the Cardinals being in Spring Training there, but since they are I anticipate we will return again in the next few years. The discussion with the locals, however, always seemed to bring up crime and/or hurricanes... the latter or which means there is absolutely zero chance of ever living or time-sharing in South Florida for us.
Economic Data Tidbit -- national surplus
The highest national surplus amounts as a % of GDP*
1. Brunei 56.0%
2. Kuwait 43.7%
3. Libya 38.6%
4. Macau 29.1%
5. Singapore 28.4%
6. Saudi Arabia 28.1
7. UAE 26.1%
8. Qatar 25.2%
9. Nigeria 24.5%
10. Trinidad & Tobago 24.3%
Any common threads here?
* From the Pocket World in Figures, 2008 Edition - The Economist
1. Brunei 56.0%
2. Kuwait 43.7%
3. Libya 38.6%
4. Macau 29.1%
5. Singapore 28.4%
6. Saudi Arabia 28.1
7. UAE 26.1%
8. Qatar 25.2%
9. Nigeria 24.5%
10. Trinidad & Tobago 24.3%
Any common threads here?
* From the Pocket World in Figures, 2008 Edition - The Economist
Free Investment Advice...
David Swenson manages Yale's $22B endowment, and I woke up to him this morning on NPR offering free investment advice. The really interesting thing with this free advice is that it is probably good advice. His strategy focuses on balancing your portfolio across a number of areas, for example real estate trusts, domestic and foreign equity, etc.
Swensen says fees are also the big reason you should buy index funds instead of classic mutual funds. Index funds, which track market segments like the S&P 500, are a lot cheaper.This is the true gem of the advice, to not pay unnecessary fees. Too many of today's mutual funds and equity instruments are charging a significant annual management fee (1% or so, often)and on top of this charge substantial transaction fees as well. For the small time investor, like myself and most of us, following the market indexes and reducing fees will often yield a real return than giving your peanuts to ALPHA-investor dude. Additionally, focusing on keeping the portfolio internally balanced with your long term investment policy will allow a simple approach to the old business concept of "buy for $1, sell for $2".
Swensen says the vast majority of professional mutual fund managers fail to beat those indexes.
"When you look at the results on an after-fee, after-tax basis over reasonably long periods of time, there's almost no chance that you end up beating an index fund," he says. The odds, he says, are 100 to 1.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
April Fool's or Election Day...
At least the nasty campaign is over, though it does mean another WMC paid for seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. This is quickly becoming the norm in the Cheese State, and I sincerely hope something gives soon. If the current system continues, it will be exceedingly difficult to believe in the Court as a neutral arbiter of disputes...
I have admittedly not been pleased with the outcome of the last two elections, but the ends are less troublesome than the means. The current system is generating candidates that are, frankly, under qualified or unqualified. As much as I hate to admit it, I would take the appointment process that gives me Roberts all day in comparison to an electoral process that brings Gableman to the bench.
So, on April Fool's Day 2008 the citizens of Wisconsin (or a small fraction of them) turned out to elect a less than stellar legal mind to the Supreme Court based upon his campaign of being a "judicial conservative" and a promise to not "legislate from the bench." He also promised to be tough on crime, which in Wisconsin roughly equates to being tough on blacks. We shall see how much legislation comes from the bench, but I'm guessing with a conservative majority it will be more than was bargained for...
I have admittedly not been pleased with the outcome of the last two elections, but the ends are less troublesome than the means. The current system is generating candidates that are, frankly, under qualified or unqualified. As much as I hate to admit it, I would take the appointment process that gives me Roberts all day in comparison to an electoral process that brings Gableman to the bench.
So, on April Fool's Day 2008 the citizens of Wisconsin (or a small fraction of them) turned out to elect a less than stellar legal mind to the Supreme Court based upon his campaign of being a "judicial conservative" and a promise to not "legislate from the bench." He also promised to be tough on crime, which in Wisconsin roughly equates to being tough on blacks. We shall see how much legislation comes from the bench, but I'm guessing with a conservative majority it will be more than was bargained for...
Conservative groups are celebrating the defeat of the first sitting Supreme Court Justice in more than 40 years, an outcome which is expected to tilt the balance of power on the high court to the right.
In a bitter, expensive race in which both candidates were accused of being soft on crime -- and spent little time talking about the myriad other issues that occupy most of the high court's caseload -- Burnett County Judge Michael Gableman, 41, unseated Justice Louis Butler, 56, on Tuesday.
Butler, the first African-American to serve on the high court, was also the first Supreme Court Justice to be defeated for re-election since Chief Justice George Currie, who was ousted in 1967 after he allowed the Milwaukee Braves baseball team to relocate to Atlanta.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
2008 MLB Preview...
MLB OVERALL
Getting to watch the Cubbies and Brewers both try to give away a game on Opening Day has improved my outlook, but I still have to make an honest assesment and predict the following finish in the NL Central: Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals, Reds, Astros, Bucs.
The NL East should be interesting as well, and I'm going with the Braves, Mets, Phils, Nats and Marlins. With the Mets as the Wild Card. The NL West could be very intersting with the addition of Torre, the Padres staff, Johnson making a run at 300, and the effervescent Rockies. I'm going with the Rocks, D-Backs, Padres, Dodgers and Giants -- but other than the G-men in last I can't be certain.
The AL East -- I hate it. Yanks, Sox, Jays, O's, Devil Rays (hah! Still the devil to me). The AL West is less interesting with the fall of Mr. Beane, but the Angels vs. Mariners for the top may offer some interest. I'll take the Halos, Mariners, A's and Rangers.
The AL Central will offer a great race between the Indians and Tigers. I will be watching this one closely, as I think the winner is on an inside track for a Series win. I'll go with the Indians, Tigers, ChiSox, Royals and Twins. Yeah that's right, I'm picking the Royals to finish out of the cellar.
So the BoSox missing the playoffs? I really hope the Yanks don't make it either, but you at least this may keep the media off of the "rivalry" debate that overshadows the entire divisional series.
Mets over Brewers
Braves over Rocks
Braves over Mets
Tigers over Yanks
Indians over Angels
Tigers over Indians
Tigers over Braves... go D-town!
Getting to watch the Cubbies and Brewers both try to give away a game on Opening Day has improved my outlook, but I still have to make an honest assesment and predict the following finish in the NL Central: Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals, Reds, Astros, Bucs.
The NL East should be interesting as well, and I'm going with the Braves, Mets, Phils, Nats and Marlins. With the Mets as the Wild Card. The NL West could be very intersting with the addition of Torre, the Padres staff, Johnson making a run at 300, and the effervescent Rockies. I'm going with the Rocks, D-Backs, Padres, Dodgers and Giants -- but other than the G-men in last I can't be certain.
The AL East -- I hate it. Yanks, Sox, Jays, O's, Devil Rays (hah! Still the devil to me). The AL West is less interesting with the fall of Mr. Beane, but the Angels vs. Mariners for the top may offer some interest. I'll take the Halos, Mariners, A's and Rangers.
The AL Central will offer a great race between the Indians and Tigers. I will be watching this one closely, as I think the winner is on an inside track for a Series win. I'll go with the Indians, Tigers, ChiSox, Royals and Twins. Yeah that's right, I'm picking the Royals to finish out of the cellar.
So the BoSox missing the playoffs? I really hope the Yanks don't make it either, but you at least this may keep the media off of the "rivalry" debate that overshadows the entire divisional series.
Mets over Brewers
Braves over Rocks
Braves over Mets
Tigers over Yanks
Indians over Angels
Tigers over Indians
Tigers over Braves... go D-town!
2008 Cardinals Preview....
I can't be as brief with my team's preview as was my good old pal Mel-Anon was with his Reds. I was worried that I would not be able to post this prior to yesterday's game, but alas the rain made opening day a wash. So what is "in the Cards," so to speak?
After a dreary 2007, which given the inability of our NL Central foes to close out proved a little more interesting than anticipated, the St. Louis Cardinals look to return to at least a .500 team. The Central features two talented clubs in the Brew Crew and the Cubbies (with excellent closers, hah!), with the Reds positioned to be a possible spoiler. The Astros and Pirates will, as is always the case, cause some trouble with one or two of the other Central teams, but it is unlikely that they can truly contend. It will take some solid play, improved defense, and getting healthy for the Cardinals to make a run at the division crown. So what do they have to work with in chasing the NL Central championship this year? Lucky for me I went to Spring Training and got to see the majority of the roster in action....
Catchers Molina and LaRue.
LaRue is a new addition to sub in for Yadi on every fifth day or so, and hopefully will recover some semblance of a bat to go with his capable defense and pitch calling game. Molina, hitting sixth by my account, looks to continue to grow as a top-notch catcher. Defensively it is difficult to find anyone better, but he still needs to drive the ball to the gaps a little more and cut down on the K's as well. His pitch calling is top notch and I expect as he continues to mature, he will have a very positive impact on the Cardinals currently disjointed pitching staff. He gunned down two Braves stealing and picked another off first in a single game of action in one of the games I watched at Spring Training. Overall Catcher Grade: A-
Infield Pujols, Kennedy, Izturis, Glaus, Miles, Washington
Pujols, best first basemen in the game, period. We do need him to have a huge year hitting in the 3-spot, if we plan on competing. Kennedy, hitting in the seven hole, will hopefully recover from all of his ailments to put up the numbers and anchor the right side of the infield like he was supposed to last year. Izturis brings improved range and overall a better glove to the left side, but at the expense of Eckstein's grit and determination. This will especially hurt at the top of the line-up, where currently the best bet is Schumaker. Izturis will likely hit eighth or ninth, depending on where LaRussa hits the pitcher. Glaus, batting cleanup, will get a chance to drive in some runs with Pujols on base in front of him. A thirty-three homer season or better should be the goal, since we need to get a lot of offense to make up for the downgrade defensively with the departure of Glaus. Of course, chemistry may also be improved with Glaus getting on much better with LaRussa than Rolen had been.
Off the bench, the infield will be supplemented with feisty (ok, not so much) Aaron Miles and Rookie Rico Washington. Washington is near thirty, so he probably isn't going to blow anyone away with natural talent. His defensive stability at third and his contact bat off the bench, however, should yield some value on the team. Miles will likely see more time this year, at least until/if Ryan makes it back to the club.
Infield Grade: B+
Outfield - Ankiel, Duncan, Ludwick, Schumaker, and Barton
Ankiel will patrol center, which leaves him some impossible defensive standards from his predecessor Edmonds. He looked very capable in the outfield and I would be surprised if there are many issues with his defense. The real question here is do you hit him second or fifth. Hitting second will ensure lots of good pitches to hit in front of Pujols, but he does strike out a lot for a two spotter. I see him in the two spot, however, because I think Duncan will be the everyday leftfielder (except against southpaws) and hit fifth. Duncan also strikes out a lot and is a defensive liability, but his bat packed in the middle of the lineup should allow for a potent and powerful core. Ludwick will likely get some starts in left as well. He looked good in the spring and his defense is quite solid. If mixed with Ludwick and Ankiel, Schumaker makes a formidable defensive outfield. Playing right and hitting leadoff will give Schumaker the chance to really show that his spring was no fluke. I anticipate a solid coming out party from Skip this year and his tenacity at the top of the order may be able to be at least comparable to Eckstein's. Barton is a rule five pick-up from the Indians and brings some needed speed to the line-up. He could definitely see some time in the outfield this season. I have an awesome picture of him laying out the Braves catcher on St. Patties day, i'll have to post that soon. His dreads are also super awesome, and he wears his socks correctly. Go Barton.
Outfield Grade: B
Pitchers
Rotation - Wainwright, Looper, Lohse, Wellmeyer, Thompson
Wainwright could be any team's solid number three, but is being forced into the role of ace of this staff. He is still only one year in to his conversion to starter, and if that isn't cause for concern, so Looper, Wellmeyer and Thompson are also relatively new to the grind of starting every fifth day. Lohse joins the rotation on a one-year $4.25 million dollar deal, which is just the going rate for a Red reject, I guess. I have hope that Lohse will be a Duncan rehab success, along the lines of Woody Williams -- and not Kip Wells. I do hope Wainwright can handle the innings because if he throws 200+, I'll gamble that he will win 17 games. Overall, it is just too thin on the backside. I don't know how this rotation can survive longer than early May.
Starting Rotation Grade: C+
Bullpen - Isringhausen, Reyes, Franklin, Springer, Flores, McClellan, Villone.
The bullpen may be one of the stronger and consistent pieces of this team. Isringhausen looked good last year after finally getting healthy with his hip. Flores and Franklin are both quite good, and Springer and Villone are established hands. Reyes is an unknown commodity and may end up in the rotation at some point. McClellan looked really good in Spring Training and has earned the opportunity to contribute as a Rookie to this pen.
Bullpen Grade: B+
On the Shelf
Clement, Carpenter, Mulder, Encarnacion, Pineiro, and Ryan.
If, a huge if, Carpenter, Mulder, and one of the other two starters can get back to expected form the Cardinals would have a very formidable rotation. Unfortunately, it seems unlikely we will see Mulder before May and Carpenter before the fourth of July. Clement and Pineiro are both big question marks, but probably a bit more solid in a rotation than Thompson or Wellmeyer for a full season. Encarnacion is out for all of 2008 and possibly forever after the foul ball to the eye incident from last year. Ryan didn't look good in spring training and may get back with the big club if he can show off that versatility in Triple-A during rehab.
No Longer on the Home Team:
Spiezio, Taguchi, Kip Wells, Eckstein, Edmonds, and Rolen
I really liked each of these four as players, but sometimes the shoe doesn't quite fit anymore. I am still bothered by losing Eckstein more than the others, because his gritty play in the field and at the top of the line-up are tough to replace. Izturis will probably offer a more solid overall defensive presence, but that will be partially lost by covering for Glaus in the hole -- where Rolen used to live. Rolen, a fellow Hoosier, will be joining Eckstein in the Canadian league (where I'm predicting the Blue Jays to triumph). Rolen will always be special to me, as I can still vividly remember how excited I was when the Cards successfully pulled him from the Phillies (though doesn't Polanco look good right now at second?). Unfortunately, his bat abandoned him following the shoulder injury in 2005. Damn Hee-Sop Choi! Edmonds takes his $9.5M salary to his home in Southern California with the Padres. I truly hope he puts up 38 homers and 200 hits over the next two years to reach the 2000/400 plateau, which given his defense, should ensure access to Cooperstown--- where he deserves to be. I also hope that Spiezio, one of my favorite pinch hitters since Gerald Perry, gets some help for his issues with substance abuse. Beating up your friend after driving drunk is never a good thing. Perhaps the most sad loss for me was of my man So!So! Taguchi. I hope he gets a chance as an everyday outfielder with the Phils, even though he is 38 his defense, speed and career .283 batting average deserve a shot. Kip Wells, good riddance...
Go CARDS!!!! Let's win 83!
After a dreary 2007, which given the inability of our NL Central foes to close out proved a little more interesting than anticipated, the St. Louis Cardinals look to return to at least a .500 team. The Central features two talented clubs in the Brew Crew and the Cubbies (with excellent closers, hah!), with the Reds positioned to be a possible spoiler. The Astros and Pirates will, as is always the case, cause some trouble with one or two of the other Central teams, but it is unlikely that they can truly contend. It will take some solid play, improved defense, and getting healthy for the Cardinals to make a run at the division crown. So what do they have to work with in chasing the NL Central championship this year? Lucky for me I went to Spring Training and got to see the majority of the roster in action....
Catchers Molina and LaRue.
LaRue is a new addition to sub in for Yadi on every fifth day or so, and hopefully will recover some semblance of a bat to go with his capable defense and pitch calling game. Molina, hitting sixth by my account, looks to continue to grow as a top-notch catcher. Defensively it is difficult to find anyone better, but he still needs to drive the ball to the gaps a little more and cut down on the K's as well. His pitch calling is top notch and I expect as he continues to mature, he will have a very positive impact on the Cardinals currently disjointed pitching staff. He gunned down two Braves stealing and picked another off first in a single game of action in one of the games I watched at Spring Training. Overall Catcher Grade: A-
Infield Pujols, Kennedy, Izturis, Glaus, Miles, Washington
Pujols, best first basemen in the game, period. We do need him to have a huge year hitting in the 3-spot, if we plan on competing. Kennedy, hitting in the seven hole, will hopefully recover from all of his ailments to put up the numbers and anchor the right side of the infield like he was supposed to last year. Izturis brings improved range and overall a better glove to the left side, but at the expense of Eckstein's grit and determination. This will especially hurt at the top of the line-up, where currently the best bet is Schumaker. Izturis will likely hit eighth or ninth, depending on where LaRussa hits the pitcher. Glaus, batting cleanup, will get a chance to drive in some runs with Pujols on base in front of him. A thirty-three homer season or better should be the goal, since we need to get a lot of offense to make up for the downgrade defensively with the departure of Glaus. Of course, chemistry may also be improved with Glaus getting on much better with LaRussa than Rolen had been.
Off the bench, the infield will be supplemented with feisty (ok, not so much) Aaron Miles and Rookie Rico Washington. Washington is near thirty, so he probably isn't going to blow anyone away with natural talent. His defensive stability at third and his contact bat off the bench, however, should yield some value on the team. Miles will likely see more time this year, at least until/if Ryan makes it back to the club.
Infield Grade: B+
Outfield - Ankiel, Duncan, Ludwick, Schumaker, and Barton
Ankiel will patrol center, which leaves him some impossible defensive standards from his predecessor Edmonds. He looked very capable in the outfield and I would be surprised if there are many issues with his defense. The real question here is do you hit him second or fifth. Hitting second will ensure lots of good pitches to hit in front of Pujols, but he does strike out a lot for a two spotter. I see him in the two spot, however, because I think Duncan will be the everyday leftfielder (except against southpaws) and hit fifth. Duncan also strikes out a lot and is a defensive liability, but his bat packed in the middle of the lineup should allow for a potent and powerful core. Ludwick will likely get some starts in left as well. He looked good in the spring and his defense is quite solid. If mixed with Ludwick and Ankiel, Schumaker makes a formidable defensive outfield. Playing right and hitting leadoff will give Schumaker the chance to really show that his spring was no fluke. I anticipate a solid coming out party from Skip this year and his tenacity at the top of the order may be able to be at least comparable to Eckstein's. Barton is a rule five pick-up from the Indians and brings some needed speed to the line-up. He could definitely see some time in the outfield this season. I have an awesome picture of him laying out the Braves catcher on St. Patties day, i'll have to post that soon. His dreads are also super awesome, and he wears his socks correctly. Go Barton.
Outfield Grade: B
Pitchers
Rotation - Wainwright, Looper, Lohse, Wellmeyer, Thompson
Wainwright could be any team's solid number three, but is being forced into the role of ace of this staff. He is still only one year in to his conversion to starter, and if that isn't cause for concern, so Looper, Wellmeyer and Thompson are also relatively new to the grind of starting every fifth day. Lohse joins the rotation on a one-year $4.25 million dollar deal, which is just the going rate for a Red reject, I guess. I have hope that Lohse will be a Duncan rehab success, along the lines of Woody Williams -- and not Kip Wells. I do hope Wainwright can handle the innings because if he throws 200+, I'll gamble that he will win 17 games. Overall, it is just too thin on the backside. I don't know how this rotation can survive longer than early May.
Starting Rotation Grade: C+
Bullpen - Isringhausen, Reyes, Franklin, Springer, Flores, McClellan, Villone.
The bullpen may be one of the stronger and consistent pieces of this team. Isringhausen looked good last year after finally getting healthy with his hip. Flores and Franklin are both quite good, and Springer and Villone are established hands. Reyes is an unknown commodity and may end up in the rotation at some point. McClellan looked really good in Spring Training and has earned the opportunity to contribute as a Rookie to this pen.
Bullpen Grade: B+
On the Shelf
Clement, Carpenter, Mulder, Encarnacion, Pineiro, and Ryan.
If, a huge if, Carpenter, Mulder, and one of the other two starters can get back to expected form the Cardinals would have a very formidable rotation. Unfortunately, it seems unlikely we will see Mulder before May and Carpenter before the fourth of July. Clement and Pineiro are both big question marks, but probably a bit more solid in a rotation than Thompson or Wellmeyer for a full season. Encarnacion is out for all of 2008 and possibly forever after the foul ball to the eye incident from last year. Ryan didn't look good in spring training and may get back with the big club if he can show off that versatility in Triple-A during rehab.
No Longer on the Home Team:
Spiezio, Taguchi, Kip Wells, Eckstein, Edmonds, and Rolen
I really liked each of these four as players, but sometimes the shoe doesn't quite fit anymore. I am still bothered by losing Eckstein more than the others, because his gritty play in the field and at the top of the line-up are tough to replace. Izturis will probably offer a more solid overall defensive presence, but that will be partially lost by covering for Glaus in the hole -- where Rolen used to live. Rolen, a fellow Hoosier, will be joining Eckstein in the Canadian league (where I'm predicting the Blue Jays to triumph). Rolen will always be special to me, as I can still vividly remember how excited I was when the Cards successfully pulled him from the Phillies (though doesn't Polanco look good right now at second?). Unfortunately, his bat abandoned him following the shoulder injury in 2005. Damn Hee-Sop Choi! Edmonds takes his $9.5M salary to his home in Southern California with the Padres. I truly hope he puts up 38 homers and 200 hits over the next two years to reach the 2000/400 plateau, which given his defense, should ensure access to Cooperstown--- where he deserves to be. I also hope that Spiezio, one of my favorite pinch hitters since Gerald Perry, gets some help for his issues with substance abuse. Beating up your friend after driving drunk is never a good thing. Perhaps the most sad loss for me was of my man So!So! Taguchi. I hope he gets a chance as an everyday outfielder with the Phils, even though he is 38 his defense, speed and career .283 batting average deserve a shot. Kip Wells, good riddance...
Go CARDS!!!! Let's win 83!
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Sweet Sixteen
Since I failed to post the first two rounds of my bracket (which saves some face given my 9 sweet sixteeners), I thought I would play out the final four rounds to see how I fair...
In the East ---
UNC over WSU
LOU over TEN*
UNC over LOU
UNC-WSU plays well for WSU if they can keep it in the 50-low 60's. Louisville-Tennessee could be the most exciting game of the Sweet Sixteen, given both coaches desire to push the tempo -- we may see fifty turnovers and fifty three point attempts...
In the South ---
MSU over Memphis*
Texas over Stanford*
Texas over MSU
I can't tolerate bad free throw shooting, and Memphis is really BAD. I think Izzo will get some big time performances and nearly pull through to the Final Four. Texas-Stanford is a tough call, but I'll go with Texas with Augustine.
In the West ---
UCLA over WKU
Xavier over WVU
UCLA over Xavier*
WKU -- good run, now it's over. I would love to watch them pull a stunner, but don't think it's likely with a team like UCLA who plays tough enough D to stay close even during an opponent's run. Speaking of run, how long is it till Huggins gets run out of college basketball altogether and can go sit with Bobby and discuss who is a badder-ass coach. I don't think there is another NCAA coach that I find more ridiculous.
In the Midwest ---
Kansas over VIL
WISC over Davidson*
Wisc over Kansas
Wisconsin vs. Davidson should be fun to watch. Davidson is solid, but I really think that Davidson's win over Georgetown was equal parts of Curry playing huge and G-Town beating themselves. Flowers should be able to contain (notice not stop) Curry and with the rest of the team defense of the Badgers I think a victory is in line. KU will easily take down Nova, but their poor shot selection when faced with gritty man to man will come back to haunt them in the elite eight. Of course, this is a hopeful Madisonian's perspective, but the Badgers really should be able to keep this one interesting.
Final Four
UNC over WISC*
UCLA over Texas
UNC over UCLA*
The UNC-WISC game should be intriguing in another example of contrasting styles similar to the WSU-UNC matchup. Unfortunately for Bucky, UNC will have just seen the Cougars attempts at slowing it down and even with the great overall team defense, I'm not sure who will stop Hansbrough. UNC-UCLA could be interesting and fun to watch, given the potential for a Love-Hansbrough matchup --- or it could turn into a bore if UCLA gets down early.
* Must watch basketball, not that most of these games aren't.
In the East ---
UNC over WSU
LOU over TEN*
UNC over LOU
UNC-WSU plays well for WSU if they can keep it in the 50-low 60's. Louisville-Tennessee could be the most exciting game of the Sweet Sixteen, given both coaches desire to push the tempo -- we may see fifty turnovers and fifty three point attempts...
In the South ---
MSU over Memphis*
Texas over Stanford*
Texas over MSU
I can't tolerate bad free throw shooting, and Memphis is really BAD. I think Izzo will get some big time performances and nearly pull through to the Final Four. Texas-Stanford is a tough call, but I'll go with Texas with Augustine.
In the West ---
UCLA over WKU
Xavier over WVU
UCLA over Xavier*
WKU -- good run, now it's over. I would love to watch them pull a stunner, but don't think it's likely with a team like UCLA who plays tough enough D to stay close even during an opponent's run. Speaking of run, how long is it till Huggins gets run out of college basketball altogether and can go sit with Bobby and discuss who is a badder-ass coach. I don't think there is another NCAA coach that I find more ridiculous.
In the Midwest ---
Kansas over VIL
WISC over Davidson*
Wisc over Kansas
Wisconsin vs. Davidson should be fun to watch. Davidson is solid, but I really think that Davidson's win over Georgetown was equal parts of Curry playing huge and G-Town beating themselves. Flowers should be able to contain (notice not stop) Curry and with the rest of the team defense of the Badgers I think a victory is in line. KU will easily take down Nova, but their poor shot selection when faced with gritty man to man will come back to haunt them in the elite eight. Of course, this is a hopeful Madisonian's perspective, but the Badgers really should be able to keep this one interesting.
Final Four
UNC over WISC*
UCLA over Texas
UNC over UCLA*
The UNC-WISC game should be intriguing in another example of contrasting styles similar to the WSU-UNC matchup. Unfortunately for Bucky, UNC will have just seen the Cougars attempts at slowing it down and even with the great overall team defense, I'm not sure who will stop Hansbrough. UNC-UCLA could be interesting and fun to watch, given the potential for a Love-Hansbrough matchup --- or it could turn into a bore if UCLA gets down early.
* Must watch basketball, not that most of these games aren't.
The dismal unscience...
It looks like the supply-siders will be out in full force in 2008. I will admit that I don't always think economics is the appropriate field to address some questions --- at least not exclusively -- but it looks like the supply-side economic model supporters don't even think it can fathom the benefits of lower tax rates...
But advocates see broader economic benefits from lowering tax rates, which is one of the reasons the concept has reappeared as a point of contention in this year’s election campaign, in an amended form.This is, of course, merely the newest argument offered up in the succession of bunk logic promoted by the "we got the cash and we're keeping it" anti-tax crowd. The best part is that you can't prove it wrong using economics, so all of those liberal economists who keep pointing out that tax revenues grew at lower rates during supply-side eras can stick it. Take that Krugman!
“What really happens is that the economy grows more vigorously when you lower tax rates,” said Kevin Hassett, an adviser to the presumptive Republican nominee, John McCain, and the director for economic policy studies at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. “It is beyond the reach of economic science to explain precisely why that happens, but it does.” [emphasis mine]
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Economic Data Tidbit -- Defense Spending
From the Economist Pocket World in Figures:
Defense Spending (in Billions $)
1. United States 495.3
2. China 104.0
3. France 53.1
4. United Kingdom 51.7
5. Japan 43.9
6. Germany 38.0
7. Italy 31.4
8. Saudi Arabia 25.4
9. India 21.7
10. South Korea 20.3
11. Australia 15.6
12. Brazil 13.3
13. Spain 13.2
14. Canada 12.8
15. Turkey 11.7
16. Netherlands 9.9
17. Israel 9.8
18. Indonesia 8.4
19. Taiwan 8.0
So, the good old US of A lays out nearly half a trillion in defense spending and the next 18 nations in total drop ALMOST as much. I understand the "cutting edge" argument that holds that to stay preeminent a significant additional investment is needed. I also understand that as a percentage of GDP, the USA is only at 4.0% (20th in the world), which is significantly below the over militarized Middle East norm of 6-8%. These arguments or defenses (no pun intended) for military spending do have merit, but at the end of the day --- the US still spends nearly 5 times what China spends... Somehow I doubt the marginal benefit of the last $100 billion is all that high.... But I could be wrong, and if lowered these expenditures and something happened then it would be my fault...
Defense Spending (in Billions $)
1. United States 495.3
2. China 104.0
3. France 53.1
4. United Kingdom 51.7
5. Japan 43.9
6. Germany 38.0
7. Italy 31.4
8. Saudi Arabia 25.4
9. India 21.7
10. South Korea 20.3
11. Australia 15.6
12. Brazil 13.3
13. Spain 13.2
14. Canada 12.8
15. Turkey 11.7
16. Netherlands 9.9
17. Israel 9.8
18. Indonesia 8.4
19. Taiwan 8.0
So, the good old US of A lays out nearly half a trillion in defense spending and the next 18 nations in total drop ALMOST as much. I understand the "cutting edge" argument that holds that to stay preeminent a significant additional investment is needed. I also understand that as a percentage of GDP, the USA is only at 4.0% (20th in the world), which is significantly below the over militarized Middle East norm of 6-8%. These arguments or defenses (no pun intended) for military spending do have merit, but at the end of the day --- the US still spends nearly 5 times what China spends... Somehow I doubt the marginal benefit of the last $100 billion is all that high.... But I could be wrong, and if lowered these expenditures and something happened then it would be my fault...
Misspoken, misremembered... or Busted BS?
I am the first to admit that a little lie/embellishment is to be expected from any politician (or human), but the latest HRC bullshit seems to have legs. CNN has a brief synopsis of the issue, which pretty much fits the standard Clinton lie model.
Step 1 - Make a significant embellishment for a nominal political gain,
Step 2 - Get busted when someone calls bullshit,
Step 3 - Spin the embellishment as either:
__________________a. I misspoke
__________________b. I misremembered
__________________c. I'm the victim
So, Step 1:
Step 2 was completed by the Phily Daily News, and
Step 3 is a combo of defense a, b, and c. (with a nice exaggeration thrown in for good measure),
I really think it is the combo of predictability and brazenness that gets me on these things. Is Hitchens correct, do they have no one left to lie to?
Step 1 - Make a significant embellishment for a nominal political gain,
Step 2 - Get busted when someone calls bullshit,
Step 3 - Spin the embellishment as either:
__________________a. I misspoke
__________________b. I misremembered
__________________c. I'm the victim
So, Step 1:
She said when she arrived in Bosnia on March 25, 1996, "I remember landing under sniper fire. There was supposed to be some kind of a greeting ceremony at the airport, but instead we just ran with our heads down to get into the vehicles to get to our base."
Step 2 was completed by the Phily Daily News, and
Step 3 is a combo of defense a, b, and c. (with a nice exaggeration thrown in for good measure),
"I say a lot of things -- millions of words a day -- so if I misspoke, that was just a misstatement," she said.
I really think it is the combo of predictability and brazenness that gets me on these things. Is Hitchens correct, do they have no one left to lie to?
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Economic Data Tidbit....
Highest Health Spending -- As a percentage of GDP
1. United States 15.4
2. West Bank and Gaza 13.0
3. Malawi 12.9
4. Lebanon 11.6
5. Switzerland 11.5
6. Germany 10.6
7. France 10.5
8. Austria 10.3
9. Serbia 10.1
10. Iceland 9.9
11. Jordan 9.8
11. Portugal 9.8
11. Canada 9.8
UK? Not in the top 30.
So the US spends at least 18% (relatively, far more absolutely) more than any other nation in the world on health care. Roughly 35-45% more than the highest European spenders and we still have more than 15% uninsured. I'm aware that a real portion of our spending is on R&D, which is often not recovered from other nations even though they benefit. I also recognize that we are the most health obsessed nation in the world, with a commitment to conduct an expensive procedure whenever it is plausible. It seems that health care reform will require not only providing coverage to everyone (focusing on preventative care), but could also require some reevaluation of our treatment plans and usage amounts. Health is important, but there is something suspiciously odd about spending 45% more on it than the Germans do.
1. United States 15.4
2. West Bank and Gaza 13.0
3. Malawi 12.9
4. Lebanon 11.6
5. Switzerland 11.5
6. Germany 10.6
7. France 10.5
8. Austria 10.3
9. Serbia 10.1
10. Iceland 9.9
11. Jordan 9.8
11. Portugal 9.8
11. Canada 9.8
UK? Not in the top 30.
So the US spends at least 18% (relatively, far more absolutely) more than any other nation in the world on health care. Roughly 35-45% more than the highest European spenders and we still have more than 15% uninsured. I'm aware that a real portion of our spending is on R&D, which is often not recovered from other nations even though they benefit. I also recognize that we are the most health obsessed nation in the world, with a commitment to conduct an expensive procedure whenever it is plausible. It seems that health care reform will require not only providing coverage to everyone (focusing on preventative care), but could also require some reevaluation of our treatment plans and usage amounts. Health is important, but there is something suspiciously odd about spending 45% more on it than the Germans do.
Spitzer's Scandal...
It looks likely that Spitzer will resign following the latest political sex scandal. This one particularly stings the public's sensibilities as Spitzer had made himself out to be an ethical and moral man with the utmost respect for the law. I won't digress here into discussing the crime itself, but suffice it to say that a true slimeball politician may have made it through this scandal... Spitzer will not.
The more interesting part of the story to me was that the NYT broke this story, which after the innuendos levied on McCain a week or so ago makes one wonder if the NYT has a sex scandal desk.
The NYT is your source for juicy news on all of the big politicos...
The more interesting part of the story to me was that the NYT broke this story, which after the innuendos levied on McCain a week or so ago makes one wonder if the NYT has a sex scandal desk.
The New York Times began investigating Mr. Spitzer’s possible involvement with a prostitution ring on Friday, the day after the prosecutors arrested the four people on charges of helping run the Emperor’s Club. After inquiries from The Times over the weekend and on Monday, the governor canceled his public schedule. An hour after The Times published a report on its Web site saying Mr. Spitzer had been linked to the ring, the governor made his statement.
The NYT is your source for juicy news on all of the big politicos...
Monday, March 10, 2008
Spring is on the way...
Or maybe it is already here, at least in Madison - where we do things a little differently. Though it snowed a bit yesterday, I do believe things are looking up, as we are slated to see the mid-40's for three consecutive days. This has not happened since mid-November and many are ready for the change. I've often said I appreciate all four seasons and the interludes between each, but after living through this 90+ inch winter -- I'll be happy to move straight away into full fledged spring.
In blogging news, I am officially canning the under performing and most unsatisfying unit of the Donkey Directorate, CardsDonkey. It shall be labeled as defunct from henceforth.
In blogging news, I am officially canning the under performing and most unsatisfying unit of the Donkey Directorate, CardsDonkey. It shall be labeled as defunct from henceforth.
Sunday, March 9, 2008
Florida and Michigan...
I could go on for far too long on about how to resolve the DNC stripping Michigan and Florida's delegates... but alas then I would just be another stooge repeating the sunday morning main stream media party line.
I'll tell you how you fix this.... forget about it. Don't seat them. The rules were established. The state Democratic parties in each state thought the DNC was bluffing, they weren't. Sorry Florida and Michigan, but you screwed up... or at least your state Dem leaders did. There isn't a good and clean solution for this issue, but I think it's better to suffer the fallout now than to keep the wrangling going on forever, as both sides try to find a way to split X number of delegates.
At the end of the day the only winner of this is Florida Governor Crist, who gets to support his Democratic primary voting citizens and thus comes across as the true supporter of people's right to vote... while also getting his share of stirring the shit pot that is the Democratic nominating process. On top of all this, it is very possible that the delegates won't be seated, which will mean that Crist can whine on and on all summer saying McCain wouldn't let you be disenfranchised like those damn donkeys. Then in the end [or november], we get to watch Florida go 52-48 GOP, and all the Dems can complain and point fingers and cry again. While Mr. Crist sits back and enjoys being the hero to diseffected independent/donkeys of the sunshine state. Cake.Eat.It.
I'll tell you how you fix this.... forget about it. Don't seat them. The rules were established. The state Democratic parties in each state thought the DNC was bluffing, they weren't. Sorry Florida and Michigan, but you screwed up... or at least your state Dem leaders did. There isn't a good and clean solution for this issue, but I think it's better to suffer the fallout now than to keep the wrangling going on forever, as both sides try to find a way to split X number of delegates.
At the end of the day the only winner of this is Florida Governor Crist, who gets to support his Democratic primary voting citizens and thus comes across as the true supporter of people's right to vote... while also getting his share of stirring the shit pot that is the Democratic nominating process. On top of all this, it is very possible that the delegates won't be seated, which will mean that Crist can whine on and on all summer saying McCain wouldn't let you be disenfranchised like those damn donkeys. Then in the end [or november], we get to watch Florida go 52-48 GOP, and all the Dems can complain and point fingers and cry again. While Mr. Crist sits back and enjoys being the hero to diseffected independent/donkeys of the sunshine state. Cake.Eat.It.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
Economic Data Tidbit...
My new diversion during coffee breaks is the Annual "Pocket World in Figures," published annually by The Economist and received "free" with my subscription. Today's interesting tidbit is largest companies in the world by gross sales (in billions of $)
1. Exxon Mobil $339.9
2. Wal-Mart $315.7
3. Royal Dutch Shell Group $306.7
4. BP $267.6
5. General Motors $192.6
6. Chevron $189.5
7. DaimlerChrysler $186.1
8. Toyota Motor $185.8
9. Ford Motor $177.2
10. ConocoPhilips $166.7
Anyone notice any similarities amongst this group?
1. Exxon Mobil $339.9
2. Wal-Mart $315.7
3. Royal Dutch Shell Group $306.7
4. BP $267.6
5. General Motors $192.6
6. Chevron $189.5
7. DaimlerChrysler $186.1
8. Toyota Motor $185.8
9. Ford Motor $177.2
10. ConocoPhilips $166.7
Anyone notice any similarities amongst this group?
No cursing...
South Pasadena has proclaimed a no cussing week. Apparently, cursing is a precursor to violence...
Another little piece to this issue, that the article doesn't address, is whether or not the "No Cussing Club" offers alternatives... I'm sure they do, and I'm sure it's those ridiculous sounding "good word" combos that carry the same inflection as the "bad words." This is just silly, the underlying feelings are the same, the intent is the same, but somehow using a good word makes this all ok?
For his part, Hatch hopes his No Cussing Club will lead to cuss-free zones in other cities. He believes it could be a quality-of-life issue, and that there may be less violence if people behave better.I really do applaud a kid trying to make a difference in the world, and I could see a quality of life argument being made if people were constantly screaming FUCK! in public -- but come on. How about a little embrace for our humanity and its derivative profanity. I'm sure it is mostly just me being a potty mouth that gets me worked up over this lunacy, but there is also a tinge of the All Powerful Moral Imposition from above...
"You have to start with the little things," he said.
My mom and dad always taught me good morals, good values, and not cussing was one of them," said McKay Hatch, the founder of South Pasadena High School's No Cussing Club, during a recent break between study hall and tennis practice.This, "I've done it before, but am trying not to do it again" smells of the paternalistic and anti-humanistic tendencies of certain institutions I have been exposed to in my life... and let me tell you, they hate freedom more than any hippy or liberal out there. Next time try proactively helping those that need it, that might help a community's quality of life a bit more than banning a few "super bad words."
"I've cussed before, I'm not gonna lie to you," Hatch quickly added. "But I try not to cuss any more."
Another little piece to this issue, that the article doesn't address, is whether or not the "No Cussing Club" offers alternatives... I'm sure they do, and I'm sure it's those ridiculous sounding "good word" combos that carry the same inflection as the "bad words." This is just silly, the underlying feelings are the same, the intent is the same, but somehow using a good word makes this all ok?
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Spend and Spend some more...
A new post is up on Donkey Behind the Times and I thought I would give a shot at cross posting it here:
Morgan Stanley Asia chairman Stephen Roach penned an insightful op-ed in today's NYT. He discusses the current economic situation in America in comparison to Japan of the early 90's. I'm not sure when we are going to wake up and realize that we are over consuming, but at least there seems to be some in the business world that recognize the coming reckoning...
Morgan Stanley Asia chairman Stephen Roach penned an insightful op-ed in today's NYT. He discusses the current economic situation in America in comparison to Japan of the early 90's. I'm not sure when we are going to wake up and realize that we are over consuming, but at least there seems to be some in the business world that recognize the coming reckoning...
Like their counterparts in Japan in the 1990s, American authorities may be deluding themselves into believing they can forestall the endgame of post-bubble adjustments. Government aid is being aimed, mistakenly, at maintaining unsustainably high rates of personal consumption. Yet that’s precisely what got the United States into this mess in the first place — pushing down the savings rate, fostering a huge trade deficit and stretching consumers to take on an untenable amount of debt.The bastardization of Keynesian economics by contemporary politicians is at the core of this problem. For some reason contemporary fiscal and monetary policy has taken the "lower interest rates / tax rebates or breaks" method to be the only way out of troublesome waters... Neglecting the concept of government backed infrastructure enhancements, which in the classical Keynesian school is a requirement of sound response to a slowing economy. I don't purport to be a devout Keynesian, but the current approach really stinks of being corrupted by the anti-tax crowd...
A more effective strategy would be to try to tilt the economy away from consumption and toward exports and long-needed investments in infrastructure.
Many thanks to Ohio and Texas...
for insuring that we get to witness a continuation of the Democratic nomination process.* I'm not sure that the Repubs could script it much better than the current scenario, whereby Clinton and Obama are in a heated race up to the convention.* With Clinton still slighlty on the outside looking in, we can rest assured that there will be plenty of hard hitting (and mostly below the belt) attack ads forthcoming from her camp. This is completely legit though, since Clinton has answered that "red phone", oh so many times.* This will inevitably yield a response from the Obama camp, which will, despite my hopes, probably go to the well of negativity to push back. This tit-for-tat approach will save the GOP time and money as they will get something consultants can't even really provide --- information, not about how the public may respond to certain attack methods, but actually how the public does respond. This is invaluable in what will likely be a nasty general election. I can't wait to have the airwaves blowing up with "red phone" ads from both sides in a Hillary vs. McCain general.* The other peice of great news is that we can continue to hear two moderate liberals (or as some call them sensibles) continue to try to play both the populist and the mainline corporate tunes...*
I apologize for sarcasm, I know it doesn't translate well, but I'm off my blogging game and am admittedly confounded by last evening's results.
I apologize for sarcasm, I know it doesn't translate well, but I'm off my blogging game and am admittedly confounded by last evening's results.
Friday, February 15, 2008
A Tip of the Cap...
To all those amateurs in the blogosphere who keep up with their posting while having lots of other priorities on their living agenda. Keeping up the motivation to blog on a regular basis is proving much more difficult than I envisioned. Of course, the weather and being under it have not helped matters for me. Nor has primary fatigue been as easy to deal with as in the past, but then again I don't know if we have ever seen a campaign quite like this before.
In order to break this frozen monotony of February, I've just booked a trip to Florida in March. I know that for those of you familiar with my overall disdain for the Sunshine state this may come as a suprise, but one of my goals has always been to attend Cardinal spring training and I thought I might as well check one of the hundreds of things of of my life list in 2008. So away the wife and I will go to sunny West Palm Beach / Jupiter. Which, to highlight some of my problems with Florida, really doesn't have many beaches and is one of the tweny most dangerous cities in America. Oh well, I've always liked going to St. Louis and it isn't exactly the safest of places.
On the blog front, the Executive Committee of the Donkey Directorate are meeting this weekend (me and a glass of whiskey) to discuss organizational changes and how to best allocate resources amongst the four blogs. It is likely that Critical Donkey will continue to run as a below the radar and seldom updated component, but Behind the Times and CardsDonkey are on the verge of being made officially defunct. The Behind the Times blog has been undercut by Friedman's book leave and Krugman's incessant columns on why Hillary is so much better than Obama. The Billy Kristol addition to the Op-Ed staff has also hurt my sensibilities. CardsDonkey, never really took off and I think most of it's posts could be put here without significant problems. The other reality is that I don't follow sports as well as I did when I was twelve. Wow, what I would have done with the Internet then...
In order to break this frozen monotony of February, I've just booked a trip to Florida in March. I know that for those of you familiar with my overall disdain for the Sunshine state this may come as a suprise, but one of my goals has always been to attend Cardinal spring training and I thought I might as well check one of the hundreds of things of of my life list in 2008. So away the wife and I will go to sunny West Palm Beach / Jupiter. Which, to highlight some of my problems with Florida, really doesn't have many beaches and is one of the tweny most dangerous cities in America. Oh well, I've always liked going to St. Louis and it isn't exactly the safest of places.
On the blog front, the Executive Committee of the Donkey Directorate are meeting this weekend (me and a glass of whiskey) to discuss organizational changes and how to best allocate resources amongst the four blogs. It is likely that Critical Donkey will continue to run as a below the radar and seldom updated component, but Behind the Times and CardsDonkey are on the verge of being made officially defunct. The Behind the Times blog has been undercut by Friedman's book leave and Krugman's incessant columns on why Hillary is so much better than Obama. The Billy Kristol addition to the Op-Ed staff has also hurt my sensibilities. CardsDonkey, never really took off and I think most of it's posts could be put here without significant problems. The other reality is that I don't follow sports as well as I did when I was twelve. Wow, what I would have done with the Internet then...
Friday, February 8, 2008
Friday Afternoon Media Brigade...
WEATHER
I swear it wasn't a depression induced bender that kept me away for the past week... It has been a blend of needing to change pace and having been a little under the weather, which given the current conditions here in Madison isn't a difficult position to be in.
SPORTS
Speaking of taking crap for being a Hoosier, I went to the Badgers-Hoosiers Matchup at the Kohl Center last week and was thoroughly embarassed... Looks like I can get revenge by watching the matchup at Indiana live at the Kohl Center on the jumbo TV's -- I doubt I will take part in this attempt by the UW Athletic Department to ease tensions with the fans over the Big Ten Network. In other news Bobby Knight retired from Texas Tech and can now can hopefully leave the public stage on which he has successfully humiliated himself out of what could have been a commendable career focused on making players better men... but alas, if that happened it was a side note because with Knight... It was always about Bobby!
LOCAL NEWS
The local news cycle has been dominated by the weather (see above) and the upcoming primary (see below), so I'm offering a wonderful little story that is sure to rouse your curiousity on a Friday afternoon at your desk.
NATIONAL NEWS
The Democratic primary season has heated up. The race in Wisconsin on the 19th is heating up. I may volunteer for my candidate, but I doubt it since it is very cold. I anticipate Obama winning this thing, but that is a complete from the gut guess. He will face the "maverick" McCain... who gets to keep apologizing to conservatives for not being a complete nut job. Oh well, the general will surely be interesting now, with a potentially disenfranchised hardline evangelical voter base being an important obstacle for Mr. McCain to overcome. Of course, the states were he will lose most of these voters won't be in play if Hillary is his opponent anyway, so if you want a hotly contested race in 30-40 states.. have the audacity to hope for an Obama upset.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
According to the NYT, Annan is seeing progress towards a political solution in a very disrupted Kenya. This is a very important issue to East African / Middle East stability, but it appears to be calming down. For those who like to trump up the "identity politics as horrible blight" on our electoral system, I would recommend keeping it all in context:
Somehow, I'm neither suprised nor saddened to see more criticism of biofuels recently. It has been reported numerous times that biofuels have a worse impact on the environment than even conventional fuels, and today's NYT has a nice article on the subject. Not suprisingly, many governments, farmers and industry lobbyists are quickly trying to debunk the findings that the environmental opportunity costs of additional land being cultivated is too high for the marginal return from the biofuel production:
LEISURE
Beer is good. I really enjoy a solid Pale Ale. I recently was able to try the Capital Brewery's (based in Middleton, Wisco) Pale Ale and came away a bit unimpressed. The hoppiness and bitterness meld well on the front side, but the finish just isn't quite right and definately not as robust as I prefer. This could have been influenced by my previous six pack (not on the same day) being the irrefutably delicious Dogfish Head 60 Minute IPA. There are few beers in the world that are more enoyable than the 90 Minute, but since I'm not rich the 60 does one hell of an impersonation of an A+ beer.
I swear it wasn't a depression induced bender that kept me away for the past week... It has been a blend of needing to change pace and having been a little under the weather, which given the current conditions here in Madison isn't a difficult position to be in.
Madison is only 2.4 inches away from setting a new snowfall record, with the total for the season now at 73.8 inches, just short of the 76.1 inches that fell during the winter of 1978-79.This will definately help me when the natives tell me "you haven't seen anything yet Hoosier boy... Back in the day it used to be {fill in crazy ass story line here}."
If we don't break the record today or this weekend, the record will tumble come Monday. "It's a done deal Monday," Olson said. And, it'll give today's Madisonians something to hang their knit cap on in any discussions of bad winters. "The old-timers won't be able to say it used to be like this because it has never been like this," Olson said.
SPORTS
Speaking of taking crap for being a Hoosier, I went to the Badgers-Hoosiers Matchup at the Kohl Center last week and was thoroughly embarassed... Looks like I can get revenge by watching the matchup at Indiana live at the Kohl Center on the jumbo TV's -- I doubt I will take part in this attempt by the UW Athletic Department to ease tensions with the fans over the Big Ten Network. In other news Bobby Knight retired from Texas Tech and can now can hopefully leave the public stage on which he has successfully humiliated himself out of what could have been a commendable career focused on making players better men... but alas, if that happened it was a side note because with Knight... It was always about Bobby!
LOCAL NEWS
The local news cycle has been dominated by the weather (see above) and the upcoming primary (see below), so I'm offering a wonderful little story that is sure to rouse your curiousity on a Friday afternoon at your desk.
What would the world do without potatoes?Take that Idaho! We got all we need right here in Wisco!
The Irish found out during a famine, and it was not a pretty picture.
But the U.S. Potato Genebank in rural Wisconsin is playing a major role in preventing a repeat of that tragedy.
The potato is one of the most vital crops in the world for feeding the poor, evidenced by the United Nations' declaration that 2008 is the Year of the Potato. But this versatile vegetable is susceptible to many pests, diseases, environmental stresses and quality problems.
So if the most widespread varieties were stricken with blight as deadly as the one that struck Ireland in 1845, what would the world do?
One place it would turn would be the genebank near Sturgeon Bay that has stored the genetic materials for hundreds of types of potatoes -- including the wild varieties that might save us in case of a worldwide catastrophe.
NATIONAL NEWS
The Democratic primary season has heated up. The race in Wisconsin on the 19th is heating up. I may volunteer for my candidate, but I doubt it since it is very cold. I anticipate Obama winning this thing, but that is a complete from the gut guess. He will face the "maverick" McCain... who gets to keep apologizing to conservatives for not being a complete nut job. Oh well, the general will surely be interesting now, with a potentially disenfranchised hardline evangelical voter base being an important obstacle for Mr. McCain to overcome. Of course, the states were he will lose most of these voters won't be in play if Hillary is his opponent anyway, so if you want a hotly contested race in 30-40 states.. have the audacity to hope for an Obama upset.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
According to the NYT, Annan is seeing progress towards a political solution in a very disrupted Kenya. This is a very important issue to East African / Middle East stability, but it appears to be calming down. For those who like to trump up the "identity politics as horrible blight" on our electoral system, I would recommend keeping it all in context:
The election controversy has stirred up deep-seated grievances over political, economic and land issues, pitting opposition supporters against members of the president’s ethnic group and groups perceived to support the government. Many people in Kenya tend to vote along ethnic lines, and much of the post-election bloodshed seems to have been ethnically driven, though many participants insist their motives are political.Stability has it's value and I can honestly say American identity politics seem to be more about politics generally than they are focused on gender, race or ethnicity.
Somehow, I'm neither suprised nor saddened to see more criticism of biofuels recently. It has been reported numerous times that biofuels have a worse impact on the environment than even conventional fuels, and today's NYT has a nice article on the subject. Not suprisingly, many governments, farmers and industry lobbyists are quickly trying to debunk the findings that the environmental opportunity costs of additional land being cultivated is too high for the marginal return from the biofuel production:
Industry groups, like the Renewable Fuels Association, immediately attacked the new studies as “simplistic,” failing “to put the issue into context.”I am waiting on the American people to start getting angry that their Doritos, milk and beef costs too much and realize that along with the high gas prices, ethanol is a driver in the inflationary pressure being put on all farm commodities.
“While it is important to analyze the climate change consequences of differing energy strategies, we must all remember where we are today, how world demand for liquid fuels is growing, and what the realistic alternatives are to meet those growing demands,” said Bob Dineen, the group’s director, in a statement following the Science reports’ release.
LEISURE
Beer is good. I really enjoy a solid Pale Ale. I recently was able to try the Capital Brewery's (based in Middleton, Wisco) Pale Ale and came away a bit unimpressed. The hoppiness and bitterness meld well on the front side, but the finish just isn't quite right and definately not as robust as I prefer. This could have been influenced by my previous six pack (not on the same day) being the irrefutably delicious Dogfish Head 60 Minute IPA. There are few beers in the world that are more enoyable than the 90 Minute, but since I'm not rich the 60 does one hell of an impersonation of an A+ beer.
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