Wednesday, January 9, 2008

New Hampshire's done...

The results are in from the Granite State (or at least 96% of them) and I admit my failed punditry in picking Obama over Clinton.

I honestly thought it would be close, but I didn't think Edwards, Richardson, and Kuci would take home a quarter of the votes. I'm not arguing that any of these candidates should have not been a part of the contest, but if you are an Obama backer you are surely feeling that way today. Of the 65K votes received by these three candidates plus the Dodd, Biden, Gravel votes, Obama only needed to win 55-56% to take the cake. I would postulate that he would come very close to this level of advantage if those other votes would have been forced into a dichotomous choice. Alas, it's on to the true gamble of Michigan.

On the GOP side, my superfecta went well, but it wasn't hard to pick the order. The more interesting thing to me is how close Rudy came to getting Huck for third and the fact that Romney took a closer than I anticipated second. If Mitt can come up with a victory in Michigan (where he is leading) he may crawl back into the race.

I think Nevada and South Carolina could really be a turning point on the Dems side, as Richardson will need to finish second in Nevada to maintain even remote viability and Edwards is very possibly in a must win in South Carolina.

Thinking about viability, who are the likely options for GOP VP? I have my finger on a few Dems, but the Elephants have me confused... This is of course, not unusual.

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