A blue Indiana is something I honestly didn't believe was possible without Bayh on the ticket. According to a lot of recent polling and trend data, however,Indiana is in play. Most camps/sites/experts till place Indiana in the Leans Republican column, which makes sense given the systematic and institutional nature of supporting the GOP presidential candidate in the state. However, the news on the ground is telling more and more stories like this one about Lafayette from the 538ers.
It seems to me that the McCain camp took for granted that Indiana was died in the wool red and in doing so never created the campaign structure that is needed towards the end of a race to close the deal with fence voters. Obama has an impressive campaign organization on the ground, and given the 29 days remaining may just be able to make Indiana interesting. It is an impressive feat in and of itself to even be talking about putting the Hoosier state in play, given it broke 1.5M to 950K in '04. To win, Obama will need to increase the Kerry splits in Lake, Marion and Monroe counties, as well as significantly eat into the huge Bush numbers in the seven donut counties around Indy. Those seven counties broke at above 63% in 2004. If Obama can carry Lake at close to 70%, Monroe and Marion at 65% and bring the donuts down to 53-55% he just might have a shot. Under any circumstance, I'm definatley excited about this race, and if nothing else I can watch to see if Daviess County can overtake Kosciusko for the most Republican in the state*.
I actually have trouble believing there are actually 2,500 people who voted for Kerry in Daviess County.
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