Friedman returns, "Dumb as We Wanna Be"

Mr. Friedman graces us with his opinion in today's NYT, focusing on energy policy. The long and short of it is that our politicians are failing us in a serious way. With Clinton joining McCain in calling for a gas tax holiday and the Bush-Congress inability to figure out a compromise on tax credits for renewables, we are faced with an energy policy that is working directly against our long term sustainable interest.

The McCain-Clinton proposal is a reminder to me that the biggest energy crisis we have in our country today is the energy to be serious — the energy to do big things in a sustained, focused and intelligent way. We are in the midst of a national political brownout.

I hate to focus in on the word Serious (I know Mr. Mel-Anon loves to abuse it), but I really think Friedman is on the money in this instance. Political pandering, or transactional politics, or whatever you wish to term it isn't horrible in and of itself, but when it encourages and incentivizes behavior that is against our long term public interest it really gets my goat. I'm not suprised that the McCain camp would stump for a shortsighted and ass backwards policy, but Clinton joining in is truly disappointing. I don't see how a campaign that highlights it's candidates policy credentials can keep a straight face when it comes to such a silly proposal.

If you want to help Joe and Jane Sixpack, start by developing an energy policy that reduces our reliance on non-renewables and focuses on conservation.

Is there a homeowner debt problem in Madison?

According to The Capital Times (or new spiffy online newspaper, or should I say our newly online newspaper?), Forbes magazine has ranked Madison in the top ten most overextended homeowner debt markets. I have to admit that this surprised me somewhat, as I had not realized how much leverage had been exerted in the Madison market. The study shows that of the largest 150 markets Madison is near the top in terms of number of homes with a second mortgage or home equity line of credit.

Home equity loans are more popular than ever, however. The Federal Reserve Board says the total amount of outstanding home equity loans grew from $260 billion in 1995 to $970 billion in 2005.

These loans are popular when property values are rising since homeowners receive cash and can deduct the interest. Problems come when prices fall, however.

Of note from this quote is the "can deduct interest" line. If there is one group that hasn't been attacked or blamed for the current problem, it's the government. I believe it there is a serious public policy error in our tax code, which incentivizes over consumption on homes. This type of policy was never going to be sustainable, but hey what part of our tax policy is?

Sometimes, I think I could be an economist...

"People took money out of their homes to spend it," says Scott Hoyt, director of consumer economics at Moody's Economy.com. "There are significant, negative implications for contractors and retailers because consumers will be drastically cutting back on their spending."

Hitchens, always interesting...

The Prospect offers up an intriguing biographical / psychological exploration of Hitchens in the May issue. I know many of my friends from the left side of the field may not appreciate the Hitch, but even they, if honest, would have to admit there are not many public figures as straightforward as Hitchens.

Hoosier Dems get a say...

For the first time in my lifetime, being a Democrat in Indiana could mean something in a presidential race. The polls are showing Hillary maintaing a relatively stable lead over the month of April.* This lead is not evaporation proof, however, and Obama has kept himself within range if Clinton missteps in the Hoosier state. Another potential boost or dynamic change could come if one of the Southern representatives endorses Obama. Obama campaigned for both Ellsworth (the Bloody 8th) and Hill in 2006, so he may still pull one or both out. Of course, the Clinton machine has sent out quasi-liberal Evan Bayh to discredit/discourage/denigrate the possibility of these endorsements. A short list of the gems included in the washpost article:

"Why should they get crosswise with some of their friends if they really don't need to?" asked Bayh, perhaps the most powerful elected Democrat in the state.

The effect of any endorsement -- his included -- "really is pretty marginal," Bayh said.

Well, the first quote looks like a pretty overt political threat, and the second appears to be discrediting any proactive action the reps might take. It seems the Clinton camp must be ready for the endorsements to come. It also seems that Bayh is working his butt off in Indiana to ensure a Clinton victory. I don't think we will ever see if it's true, but I'm betting that Bayh would be Hill's VP candidate --- or at least he was promised this to get him out of the race way back when he had staff in Iowa long before anyone else.

* An aside on the poll numbers, it appears in the most recent Survey USA poll that Clinton's winning "Southern Indiana" by a 2 to 1 margin. I would be interested to see how this was defined in coding the results. Additionally, I noticed that for those who consider immigration their number one issue - the breakdown is 68-28 for Clinton. The numbers are almost flipped for the issue of education and everything else is within 20 points. So, not to create too much of a false dichotomy here, but you can either elect Clinton to protect your kid's from a frightening globalized economy by keeping all them "others" out or you elect Obama and protect them through education.... I'm all for the xenophobic reaction, and would not be suprised if this isn't what keeps Clinton safe in the Hoosier state.

The end days are here....

I hate to be overly apocalyptic, but the Tampa Bay [Devil] Rays are in first place in the AL East. This development should have been mentioned in Revelation as a sign of the end times, along with all those men on horses and stuff... I honestly don't think it's a coincidence that right after dropping "Devil" from their name the "rays" start to win, which is working towards a dynasty of many years, which will get all of us baseball heathens to worship them..., which is very much not a good thing when the end times come -- it's like against the second amendment, or commandment, you know.

NFL Draft weekend

I had been fairly successful in avoiding draft coverage, until the Packer traded their first round pick (#30 overall) down to a second round pick (#36 overall) yesterday. This has been stirring up a fervor amongst many Packer fans, and I have to say it scares me that people get this worked up over a draft pick. I love me some football, but come on -- who knows what will become of a 30th, 36th, or 132nd pick. I guess the zany football fans are to dense to realize that in baseball games are being played, and those actually do matter.

Speaking of baseball, my Cards are haning in there with a very hot Cubbie team. The
Brew Crew is staying close as well. I am hoping the Cards can continue to get solid starting pitching and the timely hitting, but I'm not exactly overconfident. In other news, the Reds suck. How about that Mr. Gravy Train?

Tornado, T-storms, and severe weather

This afternoon we have been experiencing some severe weather advisories pertaining to floods, t-storms and tornadoes (sp?). I have always been fascinated by severe weather and recall numerous summer evenings spent with friends outside acting as amateur storm trackers. I am still very enthralled by these events, and I speculate that it must have something to do with feeling very vulnerable at the hands of mother nature. After all, she is the boss lady.

Media coverage of local food movements...

I think it's great that the Isthmus is giving significant coverage to the concept of locally provided food. I found the article to be quite informative and it seemed to offer a number of fair and valid observations regarding a number of organizations.

Perhaps, the most salient point made, is one that is often made, but should not be forgotten:

Still, amid its successes, the local-food movement is suffering growing pains. There is, for example, the problem of access. Local food can seem a bourgeois taste, one enjoyed by customers of pricey fine-dining establishments and precious natural-foods supermarkets.

The locatarian / locovore / local food / slow food movements must work hard to avoid becoming too much of a snootish and pretentious endeavor. I will admit that it was my love of great tasting food that got me started in the conceptual movement of sourcing more of my diet from closer to home, but I now believe it is more than that. And to make a real difference in the broader scheme of things, pretentiousness must be mitigated.

Only in 'Sconsin....

Sometimes you just don't want to believe it's true...

Helen McCollum says she was just trying to help a guy staggering down the highway after he had hit a cow in the middle of the road.

Instead, she was arrested on a drunken driving charge after hitting the same cow, which did not survive.

"I was helping this guy and I was busted," McCollum called The Capital Times to say today. "This is why people don't stop and help others anymore."

I have to admit that the real kicker of this whole story is the inclusion of the ever critical fact that the cow did not survive!

Lock'em up, say the masses...

I had previously posted an "Economic Data Tidbit" on the topic of incarceration rates, so I thought it appropriate to link to Liptak's article in the NYT today, which is part of his American Exception series on the distinctness of the American judicial arena.

Perhaps the most interesting portion of the article is one of the possible causes for the extreme disparity, democracy!

Most state court judges and prosecutors in the United States are elected and are therefore sensitive to a public that is, according to opinion polls, generally in favor of tough crime policies. In the rest of the world, criminal justice professionals tend to be civil servants who are insulated from popular demands for tough sentencing.

Mr. Whitman, who has studied Tocqueville’s work on American penitentiaries, was asked what accounted for America’s booming prison population.

“Unfortunately, a lot of the answer is democracy — just what Tocqueville was talking about,” he said. “We have a highly politicized criminal justice system.”

This is a fine example of one of those conundrums that any viable democracy must face -- how do we balance the majority's collective will with the rights of the minority? Well, we may be taking the route of just locking up the minority --- and taking away their right to vote when they return to "normal" society as well. Woot! Go Democracy!

Moving on up...

It looks like General Petraeus is moving on up in the world of military power and control. I honestly felt a little bad for the guy when MoveOn hit him with the "Betray Us" stuff last year, but now I'm wondering if this rapid career advancement isn't maybe just possibly related to his ability and willingness to carry the dirty political water of the Bush Administration. I have no real basis for this innuendo, but with this adminisration not much suprises me anymore in the realm of bad/poor governance.

Nepotism, favoritism, or not -- this advancement will ring through to the global community as another political reward for those moving forward with the Bush agenda (who really knows that this is anymore?). Another big day for American foreign relations. Yay!

Economic Data Tidbit -- Most Air Travel

Millions of passenger kilometers per year*

1 United States 1,238,952
2 China 201,948
3 UK 196,488
4 Germ 152,909
5 Japan 151,080
6 France 115,116
7 Austrailia 77,112
8 Canada 70,956
9 South Korea 69,276
10 Singapore 69,084
11 Netherlands 68,316
12 Hong Kong 66,168

Note: Numbers 2-11 added together is still lower than the United States alone. Don't get me wrong, because I love to fly and it is wonderfully convenient, but there is something wrong when approximately 300 million people are flying more than the NEXT (not even the bottom) 11 countries, or approximately 1.79 billion people. This data shows that the average American flys over 4K kilometers per year, while the average Chinese citizen flys around 150 kilometers per year. What happens if China catches up in this travel average? An increase to 1K kilometers per year (still the lowest average of this group) would increase the absolute kilometers from 200K to over 1300K.

There are obviously lots of environmental concerns out there, but our proclivity to fly everywhere and anywhere, all the time, seems to me to be a significant issue.

*From The Economist Pocket World in Figures, 2008 ed.

Thank you to Pennsylvania...

Just in case anyone was getting their hopes up that the Democratic nomination would be complete before July 1st... well the 10 point victory for Clinton yessterday pretty well ensures that we're going the distance (but not for speed - CAKE rocks).
Not to get to serious here, but does anyone really believe that this is healthy for the Democrats? McCain is walking around picking up loose cash and putting some jabs onto both candidates, while Obama and Hillary attempt to go negative in the most positive way... This could very possibly bite the Dems in the ass, and a loss in this electoral environment would be pretty significant (in a very bad way).

I know my hard left friends will say it doesn't matter, but I have to think that McCain in office for four years (at least) would probably not help our standing in the global community, and also wouldn't be as likely to reduce the body bags coming home from Iraq.

Another Newspaper Obituary...

One of the two local daily's, The Captial Times, will cease having a print version as of this Saturday. The paper is trying to put as much positive spin as possible on their foray into twice a week printed supplements in the other daily, the Wisconsin State Journal, and a daily presence online. Madison is a very well wired and connected town, but I don't know how long the Cap Times will last as an online institution. The readership numbers were already quite low, and I think a good portion of those subscribers are less likely to use the web for their local news sourcing.

In any event, Madison gets to join the standard American media landscape, whereby the daily news is dominated by a single source... At least we still have the Isthmus.

I told everyone that Madison is different...

I just heard today, that after an early January visit to cold and snowy Madtown, none other than the Hitch decided to quit smoking.

After the drinks arrive I offer Hitchens one of my Marlboro Lights. Then something life-changing happens. Cool as a cucumber - and with no hint of remorse - Hitchens announces that he has given up smoking. "I got up yesterday morning in Madison, Wisconsin, and I just threw my pack away," he says.

I have no way of knowing if he has stayed on the wagon, but this does point to one potential resultant of smoking bans in bars in really cold places.... Smokers get cold too, and if you have to stand in sub-zero temps for your fix, well it doesn't seem quite as important. I have to admit that this news struck me as startling, because on his last visit in October, I personally witnessed him lighting up in the Monona Terrace Convention Center with not a care to the world.

I'm sure this health conscious decision is making some on the left twinge, since I'm sure a number were hoping that the black lung would get him sooner rather than later.

The American Donkey!!!!!

In honor of America, I have changed the color scheme of the Donkey mother ship...

In case you were wondering, AM does not neccesarily stand for American... but if it fits at the moment, I'll take it.

In all honesty, I'm just bored today and the color scheme matches my little league team (I'm coaching, not playing wiseasses...

Additionally, today marks the official demise of Donkey Behind the Times, of the Donkey Directorate. Another concept blog may come along at some point, but for the moment I'm going to focus my energy here at the home plate of Donkey bloggers.

Organic food prices soar...

The organic food movement has taken off in the past five years in America, with sales up over 125% during that time. This same five year period saw ever growing numbers of farmers and acres of crop land going organic. According to an article in today's NYT Business section, this trend has slowed dramatically with the new heightened prices of all commodities.

The organic movement is based around the premise that consumers have a higher willingness to pay for food that is grown without the aid of chemicals, fertilizers and hormones. This premise seemed to hold true over the recent past, as the market share of organics grew significantly. The problem with this assumption now, however, is that many believe there is a likely inflection point in the food markets -- whereby, consumers will forego purchasing the organic goods due to the high absolute price. The interesting thing about this is that it doesn't appear that organics are decoupling from their normal 20-100% premium over conventional foodstuffs. Instead, the fear is that there is a pyschological barrier involved and that $7 a gallon milk is something the consumer cannot tolerate. For exmaple, two years ago a gallon of "regular" milk was around $2 and organic milk was about $4, which was a 100% price premium. Now with regular milk at $3.39 and organic at approximately $6.65 (once again roughly 100% premium), the market may begin contracting. It seems to me that in the stumbling economy, this slight (but very real to some) absolute increase, along with the aforementioned pyschological impact of the pricing, could very likely put a huge downward pressure on demand for organic goods. Another possibility proposed by a friend is related to this mindset, as he postulated that the growth in the organic food sector was due almost exclusively to the faddiness of it and the additional disposable income from a subset of the population. He may be right...

I know that at home we try to use some organic products, but have focused more on the local sourcing aspect of our food and this increase in costs has played a role in keeping us from moving more into the organic marketplace. Even with an increase in disposable income, we are often made aware of the price disparity of our food choices compared to the "cheaper" alternatives. I hope we won't have the need to leave the local food market, but I will be interested to note if there is any marked change at the big Dane County Farmer's market this year.

Spring has sprung...

Other than baseball, my favorite thing about spring is the thoughts of a wonderful garden. Given my limited amount of personal outdoor space on the condo grounds we are going to go through a CSA to augment our weekly trips to the Dane County Farmer's Market this year. We have choosen to use Green Spirit Farm in Dodgeville as our CSA this year. Our choice was primarily based on their reputation for some very good berries. I hope to be able to get back to my roots (pun intended), and plant some semblance of a mini-garden this year as well. I'm thinking some hearty tomatoes should be fun.

An interesting food and gardening article appeared in today's NYT, which may interest my fellow fans of food. With the price of transport so high, are we headed for a return of victory gardens?

Economic Data Tidbit -- Prisoners per 100K

Prisoners per 100K population (latest available year)*

1. United States 737
2. Russia 613
3. Virgin Islands (US) 549
4. Belize 505
5. Turkmenistan 489
6. Cuba 487
7. Bermuda 464
8. Bahamas 462
9. Cayman Islands 453
10. Belarus 426
11. Barbados 367

The US has a 20% higher rate than any other nation in the world and twice as high of a rate of all but 9 other nations. Included in those nine nations are such bastions of freedom as Turkmenistan and Cuba. The real craziness in this data is the fact that America's rate is increasing at a fairly strong clip. This is definately an example of unsustainable policy, since it's only a matter of time until we don't have any guards for all the prisoners.

* From The Economist, 2008 Pocket World in Figures

Redbirds atop the Central

The Cardinals are atop the NL Central by a game and a half after beating the Brewers 6-1 last night. The key to that game, and the season thus far, was some clutch two out hitting combined with solid aggressive pitching. Braden Looper picked up his third win to stay undefeated and is now a third of the way to the nine games I thought he would win. The offense has not been eye popping, but with Pujols getting on base more than 50% of the time, and solid contributions coming from Ankiel and Glaus the heart of the order is seeming more legit than it did to start the year.

Overall, the rotation has been a pleasant suprise, with the big exception in Joel Pineiro -- who looked very bad against the Giants in his first start of the year over the weekend. The bullpen has been spectacular and leads the NL in ERA. The Franklin to Isringhausen combo may end up producing another .975 win percentage when leading after seven, which would greatly help the Cards chances of staying in the race. The bullpen, however, is the biggest concern in my mind as the season moves along. Without the starting pitchers getting past the sixth consistently (unlikely unless Mulder and Clement come back and are on) the bullpen is going to be forced to work a lot of innings. With Reyes out there to chew through quite a few, I'm less concerned, but it probably isn't the best news that the Cards have had to use Franklin in 9 of the 14 and Izzy in 7 of the 14 to this point.

All concerns aside, the Cards are winning... which makes me happy. The Reds are not, which I'm sure annoys Ken... and makes me happy.

Smart people, what do we want with smart people...

Lexington, at the Economist, points out the idiocracy of the current limit on H-1B visas in America. The H-1B visa program has historically been used to bring highly educated and/or trained individuals to America for work. More than a few of these have worked out quite well, but in our current state - with Congress being a leader in fermenting a frothing anti-immigrant fervor - we are limiting this program to a mere 70K per year (assigned by lottery no less, which fly completely in the face of a market approach).

Thirty years ago this approach may have been acceptable, as the United States could sit back and tell the applicants to wait... There wasn't a solid substitute location. Now, however, many nations are realizing the value of opening up their borders to global talent while America sits on its laurels.

There was a time when ambitious foreigners had little choice but to put up with America's restrictive ways. Europe was sclerotic and India and China were poor and highly restrictive. But these days the rest of the world is opening up at precisely the time when America seems to be closing down. The booming economies of the developing world are sucking back talent that was once America's for the asking. About a third of immigrants who hold high-tech jobs in America are considering returning home. America's rivals are also rejigging their immigration systems to attract global talent.

There is still time to see a marked change, but this will require political will in a time where there may not be a more unpopular cause. The GOP can't touch this one, even though the business lobby is strongly in favor, because some of the squeaky xenophobic base can't even stomach the sound of the word immigrant. The Dems won't touch it either, despite the program being a keystone to any theory of broad liberal social justice (i.e. equal opportunity). The fear from the Dems come from the protectionist labor portion of the tent, which holds that these folks are taking 'Murican jobs. This bothers me quite a lot, because they either come here and do the job, while spending money and integrating in our society. Or, the company ships the job to where they are, or some other country where the company can get the talent it needs. I spent some time on this issue in grad school, and am still stupefied by the lack of political will and the, to be cliche, perfect political storm that is inhibiting any long-term fix for this problem.

To Retire or To Unretire...

So Brett Favre has been alluding to coming back -- IF this and/or that were to maybe, possibly, happen. I have to admit that I'm with King Kaufman on this when he says:

Look, I love me some Brett Favre, really I do. I have to. It's in the union contract for sportswriters. And I get that he was asked the question.

But after years of clogging up the spring and summer sports news with his annoying Hamlet routine, he owed it to us all to say, "I'm retired, and that's that."

I applaud the openness. I appreciate the honesty. But at long last, sir, please shut up and go ride your tractor. If you decide to come back at some point, trust me, we won't miss it. Your name will make the papers.

In the meantime, it shouldn't. You might want to start getting used to that.

Of course, you would substitute worship for love me and way of life for Wisconsinites for union contract for sportswriters, but you get the idea. I was annoyed by this talk last winter, and it is honestly worse after seeing the Pack outperform expectations only to be jerked around by Favre's never ending retirement talk. Somehow, you just get the feeling that he shares a personality trait of needing to inject himself into the news cycle with Roger Clemens. Or, he could just be keeping his name in the lights to secure another endorsement deal. I just feel bad for Rodgers, who has to come in behind a legend/god/king and is probably in a no-win situation even without Brett saying he might come back if Rodgers were hurt. This is invariably going to lead to some Packers fans rooting (hopefully quietly) for this injury to occur. Talk about hard luck...

Of course the media would lose itself...

So, it must be a good idea. Gail Collins, in the NYT today, offers one of the best ideas regarding the presidential campaign I've heard recently...

Given the number of crises we’ve had along these lines, it might be a good idea for all three candidates to disavow in advance anything stupid a supporter, adviser, staffer or radio talk-show host says for the rest of this year. We could give the blanket disavowal a fancy name, like “Article 300.” Then the next time McCain discovers that one of his backers has, say, called for a crusade against Lutherans, he could just invoke Article 300 and we could all move on.

Let's call it the skill of the "preemptive political pandering apology." What ever happened to a good boss/leader being marked by his or her willingness to stand up for his or her own team? Alas, we are left with the process of a not so untrue or offensive remark being sensationalized by the media, followed by an outcry from the other side - which is prompted by the media looking for copy by badgering them on the issue, which is followed by the half assed apology, which is followed by... well you know the drill.

Google isn't god?... at least not yet.

For all of you thinking cloud computing or web-based software as service so awesome, some caveats from Paul Boutin. He points out that for all of the marvel that is web based apps, there are significant downsides as well. I know that I have had my fair share of issues with Google Docs due to a sporadic loss of connectivity, and it has made me revert almost exclusively to the tried and true Office Suite. I do understand that there is very little doubt that eventually (as in the long run eventually) we will probably see some version of network/web based apps being the norm, but as of right now there are some significant issues with this occuring.

Boutin nails it...

I think there's a market for free, Web-based apps that offer basic features. Knock yourselves out, dilettantes. For me, it'll be years before Photoshop Express can become powerful enough to replace my desktop version, or before Google Docs gets me to uninstall Microsoft Office. I'm not sure I want to. One of the nice things about Word and Photoshop is that once I fire them up and start working, I can forget all about the Internet for a few hours. Sometimes, my PC and I just want to be alone.

I am especially understanding of the last point, whereby sometimes I just need to have my PC and me and less inter connectivity. Let's call it "PC Alone Time."

McCain's Foreign Policy...

Apparently, there is a battle for influence in the McCain camp between the "realists" and the "neocons." Of course, Mr. McCain who claims to be a decisive leader is not committing to either "side" in an effort to pander to as many Repubs as possible.

Philip D. Zelikow, a former top adviser to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice who is not working for Mr. McCain, said it was not surprising that there were worries among the realists about the presumptive Republican nominee.

“It’s partly because McCain hasn’t settled himself in one camp, and hasn’t told Rich, you’re my man, Rich, you’re the lodestar,” said Mr. Zelikow, referring to Mr. Armitage. “But if you’re in McCain’s position, is it in his interest to settle the argument now? It’s in his interest to embrace the largest number of Republicans and not declare that he is in favor of one faction or another.”

So what is McCain's foreign policy? That is a good question, and I'm personally very interested in what line his campaign takes -- though I suspect it depends on who the opposing candidate ends up being. Against Obama, he will play more into the "realist" camp claiming the experience factor, while against Clinton, I suspect that he would pull out the neo-con arsenal to really generate good old fashioned Clinton Hate.

For someone as pro military as McCain, I have to admit I am a bit dumbfounded by his lack of a coherent foreign policy message.

CHOW --- A really damn good program....

CHOW -- Cooking Healthy Options in Wisconsin -- is a program featuring chefs in the classroom and is supported by the Wisconsin Homegrown Lunch organization. This is a really nice program, and I can speak personally to the fact that Tory Miller is very good with the kids.

If you have some time to get involved, this is one of those that won't disappoint.

Cards Win! Cards Win!

Nearly 5% through the season and the Cards are 6-2, which puts them on pace to win about 120 games. It is doubtful this will materialize, but the lunancy that is early season straight line projections are one of my favorite April pastimes...

For Example,

* The Tigers are on pace to lose all 162 games.
* Corey Patterson is on pace to hit 69 home runs.
* Isringhausen is on pace for 80 saves.
* The Cards starting rotation will not lose.

OK, so most of these are a bit unlikely, but it's all in good fun.

In all seriousness, the rotation (excepting Wellmeyer's desire to give up dongs) looks fairly good for as bad as it could have been. The bullpen is holding up and the defense could be worse as well. The Cards have been getting some big hits and with Pujols on base more than half the time, this is leading to significant opportunity to score some runs.

Go Cards!

A rotten deal, a rotting system...

The Business section of the times has an interesting take from Leonhardt on the lack of growth in the average family's income since 2000. Despite the years of growth since the last recession, the median income (adjusted for inflation) has dropped.

In 2000, at the end of the previous economic expansion, the median American family made about $61,000, according to the Census Bureau’s inflation-adjusted numbers. In 2007, in what looks to have been the final year of the most recent expansion, the median family, amazingly, seems to have made less — about $60,500.

This point has been made many times over the past few years, but it is imperative that the body politic understand that the "growth" during the last economic expansion went to a rather small portion of the population. This type of economic expansion is rarely tolerated for long, and the current groundswell of populist anti-globalization sentiment can almost assuredly be grounded in the fact that a lot more Americans lost ground in the past seven years (in real terms) than in previous expansions.

So, what is to be done? I could blather on, but I'll quote at length instead:

But there is still a lack of strategic seriousness to the discussion, as Bruce Katz of the Brookings Institution notes. After all, the United States spends a lot of money on education already but has still lost its standing as the country with the highest college graduation rate in the world. (South Korea and a couple of other countries have passed us, while Japan, Britain and Canada are close behind.)

The same goes for public works. Spending on physical infrastructure is at a 20-year high as a share of gross domestic product, but too much of the money is spent on the inefficient pet programs championed by individual members of Congress. Pork barrel spending does not add up to a national economic strategy.

Health care and taxes will have to be part of the discussion, too. Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel of the National Institutes of Health pointed out to me that a serious effort to curtail wasteful medical spending would directly help workers. It would spare them from paying the insurance premiums and taxes that now cover that care.

The tax code, meanwhile, has become far more favorable to high-income workers at the same time that they — and they alone — have received large pretax raises. That doesn’t make much sense, does it?

It’s a pretty big to-do list. But it’s a pretty big problem. Since the economy now seems to be in recession, and since recessions inevitably bring their own pay cuts, my guess is that the problem will look even bigger by the time the next president takes office.

The likelihood of any of these areas receiving serious attention during the campaign season is slight, since there is no easy solution for the problems we have currently. There will be hard choices and invariably unintended consequences from those choices. These issues combined with the desire to spread some pork lovin and the pressure of interest groups will make any significant large step very difficult. The real hope lies in the everyday American setting their mind to the fact that we have to address these unsustainable policies, or we will be passing on a worse America to the next generation -- something no generation should ever hope to be remembered for.

An Honest Day's Work, An Honest Day's Pay...

Well, maybe not so honest. This interactive guide to CEO's compensation plans is an annual favorite of mine from the NYT. I'm picking out American Express CEO Kenneth I. Chenault as my personal target of disdain. I am hard pressed to find even a free market economist who would argue that overseeing a 13% drop in share price is worth a 95% (yes nearly double) increase in compensation. Don't you wish you could lose 13% on the single most important indicator of your work and still pull a $50M salary? What a fleece job...

The 80% threshold...

It isn't everyday you find a poll of Americans that is as lopsided as this one. With 81% saying the country is on the wrong track, I think it is safe to say that we have issues. Additionally, only 4% -- that is one out of twenty-five people -- think the country is in better shape than it was five years ago. So, what is to be done? It looks like there is some support for a progressive solution involving raising taxes on the wealthy (58%), but this comes undone a bit when compared with only 43% preferring a larger role of government.

Fifty-eight percent of respondents said they would support raising taxes on households making more than $250,000 to pay for tax cuts or government programs for people making less than that amount. Only 38 percent called it a bad idea...

More broadly, 43 percent of those surveyed said they would prefer a larger government that provided more services, which is tied for the highest such number since The Times and CBS News began asking the question in 1991. But an identical 43 percent said they wanted a smaller government that provided fewer services.

All told it seems likely that the battle over those last 14% will be critical for establishing a policy mandate for the next administration. Personally, I see a need for significant reconsideration on our current fiscal policy. This may well involve raising taxes on the wealthy -- though I am not sure $250K is the best number to delineate being truly wealthy -- but also requires a review of our expenditure (general, entitlement, and tax) priorities. The current schema is, in my opinion, not sustainable over the long term. We need to reinvigorate the American ideal of producing more than we consume.

Spring Training Vacation...

It has been nearly a month, and if I'm ever going to post on our jaunt to South Florida I must get to it. We travelled by bus to O'Hare, and then flew to West Palm Beach via Philadelphia (pretty direct flight, huh?). Our trip went without any significant issues and we were able to make it to the Bed and Breakfast (Tropical Gardens B&B) we stayed at by 7:30 PM on Saturday. We were greeted by the proprietor's Steve and Evie, who live on-site. This is a wonderful plus to any B&B in my opinion. Steve offered us a drink and gave us the tour of the grounds. There are only four rooms for rent, so it quickly felt like we would get all the attention we wanted. Steve was very pleasant to talk to and the free reign of the bar and fridge were a great touch. We had delivery salad and subs prior to settling in for the evening.

Sunday morning the weather beautiful when we finally got ourselves out of bed from our pool side cottage for breakfast at 9:00 AM. Steve offered a fresh fruit bowl for our first course of breakfast and it was wonderful to have the full flavor of an orange for the first time in many months. Steve cooked a Brie and asparagus omelet for the entree, which was succulently rich and very filling. We then drove to Roger Dean Stadium in Jupiter to catch the 1:00 start of the Cardinals vs. the Braves. We had good seats, which there aren't many bad ones in the park, but the Cards did fall 3-2. The highlight of the game for me was catching a foul ball from a Brave reserve. After the game, we walked around the stadium village and I found a nice cigar shop. Being late afternoon, we had to make out to find a sports bar to watch the Badgers play for the Big Ten title against Illinois.

On Sunday evening we decided to head to downtown West Palm Beach to check out City Place and find a place to get some dessert. This area is quite nice, be it that a lot of stores were closed after 6PM on Sunday. We ended up eating at a City Cellar, a wine bar that carried half bottles of Ken Wright pinot. We decided on the Shea's and enjoyed it with a flat bread pizza, while seated on the mezzanine of the City Place Plaza.

Monday brought another huge breakfast featuring biscuits and gravy with southern scrambled eggs. Steve, once again, delivered on his promise of a huge breakfast. After getting to the game early to see if we could get Berm seats (we couldn't), we got to watch the Braves in batting practice. It is quite impressive the physical size and strength differences between the players on the field. Some, Teixeira and Jones for example, really do look like men amongst boys standing and hitting beside the twenty-two year olds. Following the Cards victory (Reyes looked good), we headed to the coast to at least say we went to the beach when in Florida. The beach was nice, though the wind made it a bit chilly. It was fun to go out on the pier and watch the Sunshine State's surfers, which is to say watch some people sit on surfboards in the water waiting on a half wave to scoot on for a couple of seconds. We ended up in the pool and ordering in Chinese, so we could watch Dancing With the Stars (an addiction).

Tuesday began with a Sweet Potato pancake breakfast followed by check out. We spent the early afternoon at City Place again, and enjoyed some window shopping at the stores. Of particular note, we found a "European" coach for $15K -- which to me should come with a flight to Europe. We returned to the airport to be greeted with the probability of a delay due to President Bush flying into PBI. I got to see Air Force One landing, which was admittedly pretty cool. This delay ended up not being that big of a deal, since we were delayed a lot in Charlotte anyway. The wife showed me her way of spending time in an airport is to walk around the whole thing... and to think I thought I would get off with no working out. Once we finally arrived in Chicago, I raced to the baggage claim and she tried to hold the last bus back to Madison. This attempt failed and our luggage came out about 10 minutes after the last bus out of town (it came out first, I might add). After futile attempts at one-way car rental and the sticker shock moment of my life at the Airport Hilton ($450 + taxes for one night), we finally took a cab to a hotel.

Following a night of not so great sleep in a smoking room, we awoke and grabbed the bus back to Madison. We were happy to be back home, but got the greeting from Mother Nature of a nice six inch snowstorm two days later. Overall, West Palm Beach isn't the kind of place I would visit without the Cardinals being in Spring Training there, but since they are I anticipate we will return again in the next few years. The discussion with the locals, however, always seemed to bring up crime and/or hurricanes... the latter or which means there is absolutely zero chance of ever living or time-sharing in South Florida for us.

Economic Data Tidbit -- national surplus

The highest national surplus amounts as a % of GDP*

1. Brunei 56.0%
2. Kuwait 43.7%
3. Libya 38.6%
4. Macau 29.1%
5. Singapore 28.4%
6. Saudi Arabia 28.1
7. UAE 26.1%
8. Qatar 25.2%
9. Nigeria 24.5%
10. Trinidad & Tobago 24.3%

Any common threads here?

* From the Pocket World in Figures, 2008 Edition - The Economist

Free Investment Advice...

David Swenson manages Yale's $22B endowment, and I woke up to him this morning on NPR offering free investment advice. The really interesting thing with this free advice is that it is probably good advice. His strategy focuses on balancing your portfolio across a number of areas, for example real estate trusts, domestic and foreign equity, etc.

Swensen says fees are also the big reason you should buy index funds instead of classic mutual funds. Index funds, which track market segments like the S&P 500, are a lot cheaper.

Swensen says the vast majority of professional mutual fund managers fail to beat those indexes.

"When you look at the results on an after-fee, after-tax basis over reasonably long periods of time, there's almost no chance that you end up beating an index fund," he says. The odds, he says, are 100 to 1.

This is the true gem of the advice, to not pay unnecessary fees. Too many of today's mutual funds and equity instruments are charging a significant annual management fee (1% or so, often)and on top of this charge substantial transaction fees as well. For the small time investor, like myself and most of us, following the market indexes and reducing fees will often yield a real return than giving your peanuts to ALPHA-investor dude. Additionally, focusing on keeping the portfolio internally balanced with your long term investment policy will allow a simple approach to the old business concept of "buy for $1, sell for $2".

April Fool's or Election Day...

At least the nasty campaign is over, though it does mean another WMC paid for seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. This is quickly becoming the norm in the Cheese State, and I sincerely hope something gives soon. If the current system continues, it will be exceedingly difficult to believe in the Court as a neutral arbiter of disputes...

I have admittedly not been pleased with the outcome of the last two elections, but the ends are less troublesome than the means. The current system is generating candidates that are, frankly, under qualified or unqualified. As much as I hate to admit it, I would take the appointment process that gives me Roberts all day in comparison to an electoral process that brings Gableman to the bench.

So, on April Fool's Day 2008 the citizens of Wisconsin (or a small fraction of them) turned out to elect a less than stellar legal mind to the Supreme Court based upon his campaign of being a "judicial conservative" and a promise to not "legislate from the bench." He also promised to be tough on crime, which in Wisconsin roughly equates to being tough on blacks. We shall see how much legislation comes from the bench, but I'm guessing with a conservative majority it will be more than was bargained for...

Conservative groups are celebrating the defeat of the first sitting Supreme Court Justice in more than 40 years, an outcome which is expected to tilt the balance of power on the high court to the right.

In a bitter, expensive race in which both candidates were accused of being soft on crime -- and spent little time talking about the myriad other issues that occupy most of the high court's caseload -- Burnett County Judge Michael Gableman, 41, unseated Justice Louis Butler, 56, on Tuesday.

Butler, the first African-American to serve on the high court, was also the first Supreme Court Justice to be defeated for re-election since Chief Justice George Currie, who was ousted in 1967 after he allowed the Milwaukee Braves baseball team to relocate to Atlanta.

2008 MLB Preview...

MLB OVERALL
Getting to watch the Cubbies and Brewers both try to give away a game on Opening Day has improved my outlook, but I still have to make an honest assesment and predict the following finish in the NL Central: Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals, Reds, Astros, Bucs.

The NL East should be interesting as well, and I'm going with the Braves, Mets, Phils, Nats and Marlins. With the Mets as the Wild Card. The NL West could be very intersting with the addition of Torre, the Padres staff, Johnson making a run at 300, and the effervescent Rockies. I'm going with the Rocks, D-Backs, Padres, Dodgers and Giants -- but other than the G-men in last I can't be certain.

The AL East -- I hate it. Yanks, Sox, Jays, O's, Devil Rays (hah! Still the devil to me). The AL West is less interesting with the fall of Mr. Beane, but the Angels vs. Mariners for the top may offer some interest. I'll take the Halos, Mariners, A's and Rangers.

The AL Central will offer a great race between the Indians and Tigers. I will be watching this one closely, as I think the winner is on an inside track for a Series win. I'll go with the Indians, Tigers, ChiSox, Royals and Twins. Yeah that's right, I'm picking the Royals to finish out of the cellar.

So the BoSox missing the playoffs? I really hope the Yanks don't make it either, but you at least this may keep the media off of the "rivalry" debate that overshadows the entire divisional series.

Mets over Brewers
Braves over Rocks
Braves over Mets

Tigers over Yanks
Indians over Angels
Tigers over Indians

Tigers over Braves... go D-town!

2008 Cardinals Preview....

I can't be as brief with my team's preview as was my good old pal Mel-Anon was with his Reds. I was worried that I would not be able to post this prior to yesterday's game, but alas the rain made opening day a wash. So what is "in the Cards," so to speak?

After a dreary 2007, which given the inability of our NL Central foes to close out proved a little more interesting than anticipated, the St. Louis Cardinals look to return to at least a .500 team. The Central features two talented clubs in the Brew Crew and the Cubbies (with excellent closers, hah!), with the Reds positioned to be a possible spoiler. The Astros and Pirates will, as is always the case, cause some trouble with one or two of the other Central teams, but it is unlikely that they can truly contend. It will take some solid play, improved defense, and getting healthy for the Cardinals to make a run at the division crown. So what do they have to work with in chasing the NL Central championship this year? Lucky for me I went to Spring Training and got to see the majority of the roster in action....

Catchers Molina and LaRue.
LaRue is a new addition to sub in for Yadi on every fifth day or so, and hopefully will recover some semblance of a bat to go with his capable defense and pitch calling game. Molina, hitting sixth by my account, looks to continue to grow as a top-notch catcher. Defensively it is difficult to find anyone better, but he still needs to drive the ball to the gaps a little more and cut down on the K's as well. His pitch calling is top notch and I expect as he continues to mature, he will have a very positive impact on the Cardinals currently disjointed pitching staff. He gunned down two Braves stealing and picked another off first in a single game of action in one of the games I watched at Spring Training. Overall Catcher Grade: A-

Infield Pujols, Kennedy, Izturis, Glaus, Miles, Washington
Pujols, best first basemen in the game, period. We do need him to have a huge year hitting in the 3-spot, if we plan on competing. Kennedy, hitting in the seven hole, will hopefully recover from all of his ailments to put up the numbers and anchor the right side of the infield like he was supposed to last year. Izturis brings improved range and overall a better glove to the left side, but at the expense of Eckstein's grit and determination. This will especially hurt at the top of the line-up, where currently the best bet is Schumaker. Izturis will likely hit eighth or ninth, depending on where LaRussa hits the pitcher. Glaus, batting cleanup, will get a chance to drive in some runs with Pujols on base in front of him. A thirty-three homer season or better should be the goal, since we need to get a lot of offense to make up for the downgrade defensively with the departure of Glaus. Of course, chemistry may also be improved with Glaus getting on much better with LaRussa than Rolen had been.

Off the bench, the infield will be supplemented with feisty (ok, not so much) Aaron Miles and Rookie Rico Washington. Washington is near thirty, so he probably isn't going to blow anyone away with natural talent. His defensive stability at third and his contact bat off the bench, however, should yield some value on the team. Miles will likely see more time this year, at least until/if Ryan makes it back to the club.

Infield Grade: B+

Outfield - Ankiel, Duncan, Ludwick, Schumaker, and Barton
Ankiel will patrol center, which leaves him some impossible defensive standards from his predecessor Edmonds. He looked very capable in the outfield and I would be surprised if there are many issues with his defense. The real question here is do you hit him second or fifth. Hitting second will ensure lots of good pitches to hit in front of Pujols, but he does strike out a lot for a two spotter. I see him in the two spot, however, because I think Duncan will be the everyday leftfielder (except against southpaws) and hit fifth. Duncan also strikes out a lot and is a defensive liability, but his bat packed in the middle of the lineup should allow for a potent and powerful core. Ludwick will likely get some starts in left as well. He looked good in the spring and his defense is quite solid. If mixed with Ludwick and Ankiel, Schumaker makes a formidable defensive outfield. Playing right and hitting leadoff will give Schumaker the chance to really show that his spring was no fluke. I anticipate a solid coming out party from Skip this year and his tenacity at the top of the order may be able to be at least comparable to Eckstein's. Barton is a rule five pick-up from the Indians and brings some needed speed to the line-up. He could definitely see some time in the outfield this season. I have an awesome picture of him laying out the Braves catcher on St. Patties day, i'll have to post that soon. His dreads are also super awesome, and he wears his socks correctly. Go Barton.

Outfield Grade: B

Pitchers
Rotation - Wainwright, Looper, Lohse, Wellmeyer, Thompson

Wainwright could be any team's solid number three, but is being forced into the role of ace of this staff. He is still only one year in to his conversion to starter, and if that isn't cause for concern, so Looper, Wellmeyer and Thompson are also relatively new to the grind of starting every fifth day. Lohse joins the rotation on a one-year $4.25 million dollar deal, which is just the going rate for a Red reject, I guess. I have hope that Lohse will be a Duncan rehab success, along the lines of Woody Williams -- and not Kip Wells. I do hope Wainwright can handle the innings because if he throws 200+, I'll gamble that he will win 17 games. Overall, it is just too thin on the backside. I don't know how this rotation can survive longer than early May.

Starting Rotation Grade: C+

Bullpen - Isringhausen, Reyes, Franklin, Springer, Flores, McClellan, Villone.

The bullpen may be one of the stronger and consistent pieces of this team. Isringhausen looked good last year after finally getting healthy with his hip. Flores and Franklin are both quite good, and Springer and Villone are established hands. Reyes is an unknown commodity and may end up in the rotation at some point. McClellan looked really good in Spring Training and has earned the opportunity to contribute as a Rookie to this pen.

Bullpen Grade: B+

On the Shelf
Clement, Carpenter, Mulder, Encarnacion, Pineiro, and Ryan.

If, a huge if, Carpenter, Mulder, and one of the other two starters can get back to expected form the Cardinals would have a very formidable rotation. Unfortunately, it seems unlikely we will see Mulder before May and Carpenter before the fourth of July. Clement and Pineiro are both big question marks, but probably a bit more solid in a rotation than Thompson or Wellmeyer for a full season. Encarnacion is out for all of 2008 and possibly forever after the foul ball to the eye incident from last year. Ryan didn't look good in spring training and may get back with the big club if he can show off that versatility in Triple-A during rehab.

No Longer on the Home Team:
Spiezio, Taguchi, Kip Wells, Eckstein, Edmonds, and Rolen

I really liked each of these four as players, but sometimes the shoe doesn't quite fit anymore. I am still bothered by losing Eckstein more than the others, because his gritty play in the field and at the top of the line-up are tough to replace. Izturis will probably offer a more solid overall defensive presence, but that will be partially lost by covering for Glaus in the hole -- where Rolen used to live. Rolen, a fellow Hoosier, will be joining Eckstein in the Canadian league (where I'm predicting the Blue Jays to triumph). Rolen will always be special to me, as I can still vividly remember how excited I was when the Cards successfully pulled him from the Phillies (though doesn't Polanco look good right now at second?). Unfortunately, his bat abandoned him following the shoulder injury in 2005. Damn Hee-Sop Choi! Edmonds takes his $9.5M salary to his home in Southern California with the Padres. I truly hope he puts up 38 homers and 200 hits over the next two years to reach the 2000/400 plateau, which given his defense, should ensure access to Cooperstown--- where he deserves to be. I also hope that Spiezio, one of my favorite pinch hitters since Gerald Perry, gets some help for his issues with substance abuse. Beating up your friend after driving drunk is never a good thing. Perhaps the most sad loss for me was of my man So!So! Taguchi. I hope he gets a chance as an everyday outfielder with the Phils, even though he is 38 his defense, speed and career .283 batting average deserve a shot. Kip Wells, good riddance...

Go CARDS!!!! Let's win 83!