Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Hoosier Dems get a say...

For the first time in my lifetime, being a Democrat in Indiana could mean something in a presidential race. The polls are showing Hillary maintaing a relatively stable lead over the month of April.* This lead is not evaporation proof, however, and Obama has kept himself within range if Clinton missteps in the Hoosier state. Another potential boost or dynamic change could come if one of the Southern representatives endorses Obama. Obama campaigned for both Ellsworth (the Bloody 8th) and Hill in 2006, so he may still pull one or both out. Of course, the Clinton machine has sent out quasi-liberal Evan Bayh to discredit/discourage/denigrate the possibility of these endorsements. A short list of the gems included in the washpost article:

"Why should they get crosswise with some of their friends if they really don't need to?" asked Bayh, perhaps the most powerful elected Democrat in the state.

The effect of any endorsement -- his included -- "really is pretty marginal," Bayh said.


Well, the first quote looks like a pretty overt political threat, and the second appears to be discrediting any proactive action the reps might take. It seems the Clinton camp must be ready for the endorsements to come. It also seems that Bayh is working his butt off in Indiana to ensure a Clinton victory. I don't think we will ever see if it's true, but I'm betting that Bayh would be Hill's VP candidate --- or at least he was promised this to get him out of the race way back when he had staff in Iowa long before anyone else.

* An aside on the poll numbers, it appears in the most recent Survey USA poll that Clinton's winning "Southern Indiana" by a 2 to 1 margin. I would be interested to see how this was defined in coding the results. Additionally, I noticed that for those who consider immigration their number one issue - the breakdown is 68-28 for Clinton. The numbers are almost flipped for the issue of education and everything else is within 20 points. So, not to create too much of a false dichotomy here, but you can either elect Clinton to protect your kid's from a frightening globalized economy by keeping all them "others" out or you elect Obama and protect them through education.... I'm all for the xenophobic reaction, and would not be suprised if this isn't what keeps Clinton safe in the Hoosier state.

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